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Economy

A Red Flag For Global Non-TMT Stocks
Global non-TMT stocks are at risk of a relapse given worsening conditions in global manufacturing and still hawkish policies from the Fed and ECB. According to the preliminary release, manufacturing PMI new orders for advanced economies fell below 45,…
Daily Insights
Interpreting The Message From Inverted Yield Curves
Has the yield curve lost its ability to “predict” recessions? The widely-followed 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve now sits at -100bps, but it has been inverted since April 2022. Investors have seemingly been on “recession watch” ever since, even though the…
Daily Insights
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward
Our US Equity Strategy service looks back at their performance for the first half of the year and assesses what they hit or missed so far and comments on the ongoing rally in the stock market. The team hit on the economic slowdown but missed on the…
Daily Insights
The Inflation Expectations Time-Bomb

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, while Japanese equities are a reversal candidate.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Canadian Inflation: Slowing, But Not Enough To Calm The BoC
Canadian inflation slowed in May, slowing to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in April. This matched market expectations, with the monthly increase of 0.4% (versus 0.7% in April), slightly lower than the 0.5% consensus forecast. The year-over-year…
Daily Insights
Unwarranted Policy Tightening
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields are falling, and the yield…
Daily Insights
The Reflation Indicator And The US Dollar
Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency, i.e., it sells off when global…
Daily Insights
Beware Russian Instability
Our Geopolitical Strategy service cautions investors of Russian instability, which will likely push up the global equity risk premium in the next few months. After some developments during the weekend, Vladimir Putin and his regime are still in power. Some…
Daily Insights
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
So Much For Détente?

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken

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