Economy
As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.
Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.
Singapore’s exports have historically acted as a good gauge for the health of the global economy. As a small open economy that is extremely exposed to fluctuations in the Asian and global manufacturing cycles, Singapore’s exports – particularly of electronics…
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
Once again, global cyclical stocks have recently been outperforming defensive sectors. This comes after the late-2022/early-2023 relative rally in cyclical stocks was cut short by the emergence of bank turmoil in early March. Valuations are providing a…
According to BCA Research’s newly launched Private Markets & Alternatives service, the present moment in the business cycle appears to be favorable for Private Credit relative to Private Equity. The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by…
The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?
China’s economic data releases for May fell below consensus estimates. The 7.2% y/y contraction in property investment in the first five months of the year was worse than the expected 6.7% decline. The deceleration in retail sales growth from 18.4% y/y to…
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling that further rate hikes are likely in…