Economy
US housing starts unexpectedly increased by 2.2% m/m in April – beating consensus estimates of a 1.4% m/m decline. The upside surprise follows Tuesday’s unanticipated 5-point jump in the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index to a 10-month high of 50. This marks…
Singapore’s trade numbers continue to send a warning for the global economy. The year-on-year pace of decline in non-oil domestic exports deepened in April after slowing in the prior two months. Importantly, the weakness is particularly pronounced among…
The lift to European investor sentiment from the ebbing energy crisis is now in the rear-view mirror. The German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment fell back below 0 in May to -10.7 from 4.1. The negative reading indicates that the share of pessimists…
The South African rand is among the worst performing major global currencies since the DXY peaked on September 27 (behind only the Argentine peso, Russian ruble, and Turkish lira). Given that the ZAR is a high-beta currency, it typically performs well in a…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, investors should stay underweight banks on a tactical investment horizon as the banking turmoil is far from over, and the industry’s profitability will be under pressure. The team has been underweight…
The US Retail Sales report painted a resilient picture of American consumers in April. Although the 0.4% m/m increase in overall retail sales fell below consensus estimates of a 0.8% m/m rise, the details of the report surprised to the upside. In particular,…
The latest Chinese economic data releases for April signal a disappointing domestic recovery. Weak economic conditions during the Shanghai lockdown last April created a low base effect which boosted the annual comparison. However, the 5.6% y/y increase in…
Recent Canadian data releases have raised concerns that the Bank of Canada may abandon the conditional pause it first telegraphed following its last rate increase on January 25 in favor of more policy tightening. Headline CPI inflation unexpectedly…
The S&P 500 Industrials index has gained 19% since its October 2022 lows and outperformed the S&P 500 gains of 15%. The sector has benefitted from American companies' efforts to "onshore" supply chains, but the deteriorating global industrial cycle…
The New York Fed’s Empire State Survey sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in May. The headline index plunged by 42.6 points to -31.8 – the largest monthly decline since April 2020 and below expectations of a milder decrease to -3.9.…