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Economy

Will China Revert To Its Old Stimulus Playbook?
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm.  A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists (whom they refer…
Daily Insights
Inflation Downtrend Intact

April’s CPI report was soft enough to justify a Fed pause in June. However, the overall economic data still don’t justify the magnitude of rate cuts priced into the yield curve.

US Bond Strategy
Shock-Proof Your Portfolio While Insurance Is Cheap

There is a 50:50 chance of experiencing a major deflationary shock in the next two years, and an even greater likelihood on a longer timeframe. The good news is that several assets provide a good insurance against this risk, and that this insurance is now cheap. Plus we highlight a compelling commodity pair-trade.

Counterpoint
A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s economy.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Base Effects Distort Signal From Chinese Exports
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022 weighed on Chinese exports in April…
Daily Insights
US Small Business Sentiment At Decade Low
Results of the US NFIB survey show small business sentiment dipped to a decade low in April. To the extent that small businesses are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics, the survey provides a good update on economic conditions in the US. On this…
Daily Insights
Aggregate Bank Metrics Have Improved For Now
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to their constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully. The team…
Daily Insights
US SLOOS: Tighter Standards, Weaker Loan Demand
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that US commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards across nearly all business and household loan categories. Moreover, demand is weakening for commercial & industrial…
Daily Insights
BoE: How Much More Tightening?
At 3.8%, the yield on 10-year UK Gilts is now back near where it was in early March. This marks a round-trip after the yield fell to as low as 3.3% in the weeks following the emergence of bank stress in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, both US and German 10-year…
Daily Insights
Non-Negligible Risk Of US Default
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a “constitutional crisis” if Congress failed to raise the national debt limit and the United States defaulted on bond payments. Yellen spoke out to urge Congress to come to an agreement just ahead of May 9 meetings…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics