Economy

The risk-reward of the US dollar is currently positive. If a US recession is not imminent, then US bond yields will move higher, thus supporting the greenback. If the US enters a recession soon, the US dollar will benefit because it is counter-cyclical. Besides, the US dollar has not been as weak as the DXY index suggests.

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.

Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.