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Economy

When Bad News Is Good News?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the odds of a policy mistake whereby the ECB pushes interest rates to 4% or more have melted. On a near-term basis, the Credit Suisse saga will continue to weigh on the euro. The ECB will…
Daily Insights
Could The Banking Crisis Be Good For Stocks?

The turmoil in US regional banks will weigh on economic growth. Arguably, it would be better for the broader stock market if growth slowed because banks became more conservative in their lending than if it slowed because the Fed had to raise rates to over 6%. In both cases, economic growth would decelerate but at least in the former scenario, the discount rate applied to earnings would not be as high.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Do Rising Chinese House Prices Foreshadow A Meaningful Rebound?
The 70-city average price of a new house in China ticked up by 0.3% m/m in February, registering the first monthly increase since August 2021. Notably, this trend is broad-based across Chinese cities with new house prices rising in 55 of the 70 cities in…
Daily Insights
The Fed’s Policy Response
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that while the Fed’s hiking cycle is close to its peak, there will not be rate cuts anytime soon The team’s view remains that the Treasury market response to recent banking turmoil is overdone. Depending…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales Decline Following January’s Strong Print
US retail sales delivered a relatively somber signal about consumer demand in February. The advance estimate’s 0.4% m/m decline in February came in line with expectations of a decrease following January’s upwardly revised 3.2% m/m gain. Notably, the…
Daily Insights
China: A Durable Consumption Rebound?
Chinese data confirms that household spending rebounded in the first two months of 2023. The 3.5% y/y increase in retail sales in January and February follows two consecutive months of declines at the end of last year and marks the strongest gain in a…
Daily Insights
Will US Homebuilders Continue Outperforming?
US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest…
Daily Insights
The US Has Passed Two Staging Posts To Recession
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is more imminent than most economists anticipate. Exactly one year ago today, the US Federal Reserve embarked on the most…
Daily Insights
Goldilocks: Possible But Improbable

The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
How The ‘Most Anticipated Recession’ Is Still Unanticipated

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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