Economy
The US CPI release indicates that price pressures remained elevated in February. Importantly, core CPI inflation ticked up on a month-on-month basis to 0.5% m/m – above expectations it would remain unchanged at 0.4% m/m – marking a continuation of an uptrend…
Canada’s labor market has been surprisingly resilient over the past few months. Last Friday’s employment report showed a 21.8 thousand increase in jobs in February, more than double expectations of 10 thousand. This continues a string of strong beats.…
The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…
Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold. Our US Investment Strategy service doesn’t…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy & US Equity Strategy services are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. One of the reasons for the technology sector’s unexpected outperformance since the beginning of January is a frenzy around…
The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish / receive Czech 10-year swap rates.
Generative AI is a major technological breakthrough that holds tremendous economic and investment promise and will have sweeping effects on wide swaths of the economy. We are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. However, at the moment we observe hallmarks of an investment frenzy. We believe that there will be a more attractive entry point for patient investors.
The results of the New York Fed’s February Survey of Consumer Expectations show a significant decline in short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.8 percentage points (pp) to 4.2% – the lowest since May 2021.…
The performance of S&P 500 sectors was mixed on Monday with Financials emerging as the major loser, down 3.8%. In particular, the selloff in bank stocks deepened, with regional banks leading the decline. As BCA’s Chief US Investment strategist…
Emerging market stocks have recently outperformed their developed market peers as the US banking woes have heightened. Is it the beginning of a new trend or a short-term aberration? To a large extent, the answer depends on what happens to the US dollar. If…