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Economy

Chinese Price Dynamics Support Moderation Of Global Goods Inflation
China’s CPI and PPI releases indicate that price pressures remained subdued in February. CPI inflation slowed from 2.1% y/y to 1.0% y/y, falling below expectations of a milder deceleration to 1.9% y/y. Meanwhile, factory-gate prices declined by 1.4% y/y –…
Daily Insights
Fed Beige Book Confirms Recent Economic Resilience
The Fed’s Beige Book confirms the recent slew of stronger-than-anticipated economic data releases suggesting that economic activity firmed at the start of the year. In particular, six of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reported a modest expansion in the pace…
Daily Insights
China’s Labor Shortage Is Concentrated In Blue-Collar Jobs
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that given the structural scarcity of blue-collar workers, the authorities will be less inclined to resort to their old playbook of stimulating infrastructure, construction, and manufacturing.  …
Daily Insights
China: From Labor Surpluses To Shortages?
Special Report

China’s labor market is polarized between high unemployment among university graduates and an acute shortage of blue-collar labor. The high jobless rate among young workers is structural and will not decline a lot even during an economic recovery. Given the structural scarcities of blue-collar workers, the authorities will be less inclined to resort to their old playbook of stimulating infrastructure, construction, and manufacturing.

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Arthur Budaghyan
The US Labor Market Remains Tight
The US labor market continues to show signs of resilience. According to the January JOLTS report, job openings decreased by 3.6% m/m to 10.8 million. This reading came in higher than economists’ expectations of 10.6 million. The number of hires increased…
Daily Insights
No Surprise From The Bank Of Canada
The BoC held its overnight rate at 4.5%, as telegraphed by the Governing Council at its January policy meeting. The BoC is widely expected to be among the first major DM central banks to end its tightening cycle, alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia and…
Daily Insights
A Paradigm Shift In China’s Economic Policy
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service believes that the combination of a lack of new stimulus in China and the hawkish stance of the Fed remains a threat for global reflation trades and China plays. Currently, Chinese policymakers are deploying…
Daily Insights
Why European Inflation Will Slump Later This Year

The combination of collapsing energy inflation and cooling wage inflation means that euro area core inflation will slump later this year. We discuss the consequences.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Paradigm Shift In Chinese Economic Policy

There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. The main purpose of government policy is now managing downside risks to the economy in both the short and long term. The priority for the central government is to build an economic and financial system resilient against potential negative shocks, including external threats.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Chinese Export Contraction Extends Into 2023
Chinese trade data remained weak in the first two months of the year. Exports in USD terms contracted by 6.8% y/y while imports dropped by 10.2% y/y. Declining exports reflect poor global demand for Chinese products as goods consumption normalizes across…
Daily Insights

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