Economy
Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…
It is well known that recession risks usually start to manifest themselves in the most cyclical parts of the economy. These include widening junk bond spreads, where tightening credit conditions will hit the most vulnerable of borrowers, cyclical…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s view continues to be that inflation, rather than recession, is the bigger risk for 2023. Nevertheless, even in the US where inflationary pressures are most acute, there are still significant deflationary…
In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.
In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.
Revised Q4 productivity and unit labor cost estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics add to the string of data released over the past month suggesting that the Fed’s task of reining in inflationary pressures is not over yet. Nonfarm productivity…
The sharp rebound in China’s NBS and Caixin PMIs indicate that manufacturing activity accelerated in February – not too surprising given that it comes on the back of the post-lockdown economic reopening. What is surprising is the jump in the new export orders…
Since the S&P 500 slid into bear market territory in June 2022, clients have frequently asked when the right time is to increase equity allocations again. A widely followed measure of investor sentiment suggests it is too early to do so. The difference…
BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service expects US fixed asset investments to pick up in the coming years. The industrial sector has floated in the doldrums after trading in a range for close to ten years following the global financial crisis. Since…
Rather than teetering into recession, global growth has firmed since the start of the year. While we still expect inflation to decline, the risk that central banks will need to lift rates more than discounted has increased. Long-term focused investors should start raising cash allocations by trimming their equity holdings.