Economy
As expected, the RBNZ delivered a 50bp rate hike on Wednesday, raising the Official Cash Rate to 4.75% – bringing the cumulative increase since late-2021 to 450bps. More importantly, the contents of the central bank’s post-meeting communication were hawkish.…
Over the past few weeks, bond yields have risen globally amid concerns that stronger-than-anticipated economic data releases raise the risk that central banks will need to respond more forcefully to restrain demand-side price pressures. In the US, at 3.92 the…
Our US Investment Strategy service is more optimistic about the US economy and US equity performance in the near term than the consensus inside and outside of BCA. Its near-term optimism largely derives from its view that US households have the capacity and…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China’s consumption growth will rebound strongly this year following an extremely dismal performance in 2022. China’s post-pandemic re-opening is creating a mean reversion in the country’s…
Since 1970, the track record of US housing recessions as the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for economic recessions is a perfect four out of four: 1974; 1980; 1990; and 2007. If this perfect track record continues, the current US housing recession presages an economic recession that starts in 2023. We discuss the investment implications.
Pent-up demand for consumer goods and services will boost Chinese household spending this year. Beyond the next 12 to 18 months, however, structural forces will likely drive Chinese household consumption growth lower than in the pre-pandemic era.
February flash PMIs showed a stronger improvement in service sector activity relative to the manufacturing sector in February. Services PMIs increased across all major DM economies (US, Japan, Eurozone, Germany, France, and UK) and exceeded consensus…
Asian trade data continue to highlight that global demand for goods remains weak. South Korean exports in the first 20 days of February fell 2.3% y/y – marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Although the contraction was not as pronounced as the…
The preliminary estimate of the European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator rose by 1.7 points to a 1-year high of -19 in February, in line with expectations. This marks the fifth consecutive improvement in household sentiment. Firming consumer…
In a recent insight, we highlighted that Chinese housing construction is unlikely to stage a meaningful rebound. Although Beijing has rolled out easing measures to stimulate the ailing property market, our China Investment strategists have argued that the…