Economy
US headline CPI inflation eased slightly from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in January – above consensus estimates of a greater decline to 6.2% y/y. Similarly, core inflation’s moderation from 5.7% y/y to 5.6% y/y was a slight disappointment to expectations it would…
Over the past few months, Canadian employment gains have been a source of positive surprise. January’s 150k increase (10 times higher than expectations) is just the latest in a series of strong beats. Although the initial massive October (108k) and December…
The reported 517k surge in nonfarm payrolls in January has caused some market commentators to question the accuracy of this figure. The decline in the surveys’ response rate is among the factors being raised – alongside seasonal adjustments and new population…
According to BCA Research’s US bond Strategy service at its current pace, the Fed’s QT program will continue for at least the next 12 months, and possibly longer. Fed Governor Christopher Waller outlined the Fed’s current thinking about its balance sheet…
Data released on Monday shows Swiss inflation reaccelerated and came in above consensus estimates in January. Headline CPI inflation rose from 2.8% y/y to 3.3% y/y, exceeding expectations of 3.1% y/y. Notably core CPI inflation broke above the Swiss…
Our Central Bank Monitors support the recent shift in tone from central bankers in Europe. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.
Chinese money and credit data were stronger than expected in January. The RMB 5.98 trillion surge in total social financing is significantly above December’s RMB 1.31 trillion increase and beat expectations of a RMB 5.40 trillion rise. New yuan loans came in…
The German DAX has rallied by 26.4% since the beginning of Q4 2022, outperforming the Euro Stoxx 50 by 5.7% in the process. With industrial equities accounting for a relatively large share of the German index, the bourse is benefitting from the improvement…
The preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey suggest that US consumer morale continues to grind higher. The headline index ticked up 1.5 points to a 13-month high of 66.4 on the back of a 4.2-point jump in the current conditions index.…
Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil supply shocks are likely. Second, China’s credit numbers for January confirm that the country is trying to stabilize the economy but also that stabilization will not come quickly. Moreover, stimulus does not resolve structural problems over the long run. We remain defensively positioned overall and underweight Chinese assets.