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Economy

The outlook for oil prices is the source of debate within BCA. While our Commodity & Energy strategists expect oil price risks to remain skewed to the upside, our EM strategists are more bearish on the outlook for Brent. Slower global economic growth…
Despite Saudi Arabian stocks having outperformed their EM peers over the past couple of years, our Emerging Markets strategists argue that this bourse is due for a breather. Saudi fiscal policy is experiencing a major shift. In a departure from past…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the rise in mortgage rates will weaken housing activity in Europe in the foreseeable future. In 2021, the average homeownership rate among European countries was about 67%, despite outliers…

The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy.

Special Report

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m in October, marking a deterioration following the previous month’s downwardly revised 0.5% m/m contraction. Negative contributions from consumer…
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in spending cuts and GBP 25bn in tax…
The latest equity rally and dollar selloff drove the recent easing in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Indexes for both the US and Euro Area. To the extent that financial conditions gauge the availability of funding in an economy, this is a positive…

The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.

The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.