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Economy

Singapore NODX Warns Against Overweighting EM
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports are sending a warning about global demand. They declined by 5.6% y/y in October, marking the first annual contraction since November 2020. In particular, non-oil exports to China, the EU, and Emerging Markets are…
Daily Insights
Hurdles For The Loonie
Although the Canadian dollar has been underperforming its G10 peers since the greenback’s September 27 peak, it has held up relatively well on a year-to-date basis. Going forward, both the outlook for BoC policy vis-à-vis the Fed, as well as oil price…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales Growth Highest In Nine Months
US Retail sales increased by a higher-than-expected 1.3% m/m in October, marking the highest monthly increase since January. Gasoline station sales were by far the largest contributor, though the control group (excluding gasoline stations, food services, auto…
Daily Insights
Stagflation In The UK
Price pressures remain intense in the UK. Headline CPI inflation jumped from 10.1% y/y to a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – surpassing expectations of a milder acceleration to 10.7%. Similarly, the month-on-month rate surged from 0.5% to 2.0%. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights
Weakening Capex Outlook Weighs On Manufacturing Output
US industrial production contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m increase. Notably, manufacturing output inched up by only 0.1% m/m and the previous three months of expansion have all been revised significantly lower. …
Daily Insights
Stay Overweight Aussie Government Bonds
The Reserve Bank of Australia is among the global central banks that are leading the dovish shift in the monetary tightening cycle. Specifically, elevated private sector debt raises the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates, ultimately limiting the…
Daily Insights
Timing The Bottom In Chinese Equities
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that although Chinese equity valuations are cheap, the breakdown in share prices below their long-term technical supports merits a vigilant stance. One of the signposts the team is monitoring to…
Daily Insights
A Cross-Country Look At Corporate Bond Sector Valuations

The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We are putting more weight on the fundamentals and are staying with an overall underweight stance on global investment grade corporates, with a slight bias towards Europe given more attractive spread valuations. At the same time, we see selective opportunities in sectors where risk-adjusted spreads are wide as signaled by our individual country sector valuation models, like US Energy and euro area Financials.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
Timing The Bottom In China’s Stock Market

The conditions for a sustainable rally in Chinese stocks have not been met. In this report we discuss the four signposts which we will closely monitor to gauge when it will be warranted to upgrade our stance on Chinese equities both in absolute terms and relative to the global stock benchmark.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
A Trading Range In Oil Prices
Special Report

Global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in the next six months, resulting in a small surplus. Brent oil prices will trade in a range with a floor at $80 per barrel, barring any geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and/or escalation in the West-Russia conflict.

Emerging Markets Strategy

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