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Economy

October In Review
Most of the global financial assets we track rebounded in October, following a period of poor performance in the prior two months. DM bourses led global stocks higher. In particular, US equities benefitted from oversold conditions and registered the…
Daily Insights
Chinese PMIs Contract In October
The Chinese manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics contracted anew in October, after briefly improving above the 50 boom-bust line in September. The headline index decreased from 50.1 to 49.2, missing expectations. Notably, production…
Daily Insights
Brazil: Left Turn Ahead
On Monday, investors cheered former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (Lula) victory over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election held over the weekend. However, Brazil’s financial markets are at risk of…
Daily Insights
US Homeowners Have Little To Fear From Higher Mortgage Rates
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service concludes that the US does not face unusually large disruptions from increasing mortgage rates like economies where mortgage borrowers confront significant rate resets that will amount to a daunting increase in…
Daily Insights
What Our Clients Are Asking: The "Snakes-And-Ladders" Webcast Follow-Up

This Fed is a single mandate Fed which won’t consider the job done until inflation reaches a 2% target. Concerns about slowing growth will displace concerns about inflation. Equities will bottom shortly before economic growth bottoms. Until then we recommend a defensive portfolio tilt, and offer a few tactical and strategic ideas for the overweights.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Naïve Readings Of The Twentieth Party Congress (A GeoRisk Update)

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
Data Dependent ECB

The ECB increased interest rates and announced the start of its balance sheet wind down; yet, markets took the news as a dovish outcome. Are we really getting close to the end of the ECB’s tightening campaign? How asset prices will react?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The US Consumer Is Still Hanging On

We remain constructive on the economy and equities in the near term because consumers show no sign of hunkering down, US homeowners are largely impervious to higher mortgage rates and our latest survey of storefront occupancies on Lower Fifth Avenue highlighted some encouraging developments.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Resilient US Consumption Despite Firming PCE Inflation In September
US personal spending grew at a constant 0.6% m/m rate in September, beating expectations of 0.4%. Spending on services led the overall growth, though goods spending also contributed positively, reversing the prior two months’ downtrend. Notably, real personal…
Daily Insights
Don’t Bet On A BoJ Policy Shift
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained a dovish policy stance at its Friday meeting. It left the policy rate unchanged at -0.1% and kept the cap on 10-year bond yields. However, the central bank revised up its CPI inflation forecasts for the 2022, 2023,…
Daily Insights

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