Economy
Australia’s headline CPI inflation accelerated to 7.3% y/y in Q3 from 6.1% y/y, the highest level since 1990. Housing, transportation and food led the year-on-year increase. Trimmed mean CPI, a less volatile measure of core inflation, also firmed from 4.9%…
The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed the pace of its interest rate increases on Wednesday, delivering a 50bp hike against anticipations of another 75bp rise. The decision reflects an attempt to balance between stubbornly elevated inflation and…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, messages from the Party Congress suggest that China’s policymakers will continue to balance the trade-offs between short-term economic growth, socio-political stability and the nation's long-term…
The 20<sup>th</sup> Communist Party Congress concluded on Sunday with President Xi Jinping cementing his third term in office. We are maintaining our cautious stance on Chinese stocks and the exchange rate. The lack of a significant shift away from current macro and regulatory policies means that China’s economic recovery and stock performance remain at risk.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell from 107.8 to 102.5 in October, significantly below anticipations of a milder decrease to 105.9. In particular, the Present Situation Index sunk to 138.9 from 150.2 while the Expectations Index declined…
10-year US Treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday after closing at a 14-year high of 4.25% on Monday. The question facing investors is how much further can bond yields rise? Our US Bond strategists recently analyzed past Fed tightening cycles and found…
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany was broadly unchanged at 84.3 in October, beating consensus expectations of a decrease to 83.5. The 0.4-point decline in the Current Assessment index was better than consensus estimates of a 1.6-point drop.…
Preliminary October PMI estimates generally point to a broad-based deterioration in economic activity across DM economies. PMIs across the US, Australia, the Eurozone and the UK all deteriorated from September levels. Notably, services in the UK and…
Relentless USD strength has caused nearly all major currencies to depreciate versus the greenback this year. However, the chart above highlights that domestic policy played a role in determining the extent of the weakness. The currencies of countries that ran…
On Monday, UK Gilts rallied on news that former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The 10-year yield fell by 31bps while the 2-year yield ended the day 24bps lower – levels that prevailed prior to the…