Economy
Chinese headline CPI inflation accelerated from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% y/y in September. However, this headline figure overstates the extent of price pressures in the Chinese economy. The increase was led by an 8.8% y/y rise in food prices. Meanwhile, core CPI…
On the surface, the US retail sales report for September was weaker than expected. The level of overall retail sales was unchanged – a slowdown from 0.4% m/m in August and disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m increase. However, this headline figure…
Output from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is often used to obtain a timely read of economic conditions in the US. The GDPNow model has been consistently predicting positive quarter-on-quarter growth for Q3. Its latest estimate on Friday suggests that GDP…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the kinked Phillips curve framework predicts that inflation may fall fairly painlessly over the coming months. According to the kinked Phillips curve framework if we are on the steep side of…
The kinked Phillips curve not only explains why inflation surged last year but makes a number of surprising predictions, chief of which is that inflation could fall significantly over the coming months without a major increase in the unemployment rate. In the near term, that is bullish for stocks.
A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.
US headline CPI growth accelerated to 0.4% m/m in September from 0.1% m/m, surpassing expectations of a milder 0.2% m/m increase. The core measure excluding food and energy grew at the same rate as August (0.6% m/m) but still exceeded the 0.4% m/m…
Last week’s Global Manufacturing PMI release showed the New Export Orders component fell deeper in contraction territory in September – to 45.9 from 47.0. It marked the 7th consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line and is the lowest level since June 2020.…
The US economic surprise index – which measures the extent to which the economic data is either beating or missing economists’ forecasts – has recently moved back into positive territory. A move above zero indicates that economists have been overly…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the UK’s near death experience sends three salutary warnings to all investors. Warning 1: Beware ‘Hidden Leverage’ Hidden leverage is not unique to liability-driven investment (LDI) funds, nor to…