Economy
US durable goods orders fell 0.1% m/m in July following a 0.8% increase but beat expectations of a greater decrease. The decline reflects a 48.9% m/m drop in new orders for nondefense aircraft & parts. The less volatile durable goods orders excluding…
The German IFO reveals that businesses continue to pare back optimism. The headline index fell 1.3 points to 99.4 on the back of a greater than expected 3.5-point decline in expectations. Meanwhile, the current assessment component gained one point. The…
The S&P 500 continues to climb, registering fresh highs. However, other parts of financial markets are signaling greater caution about the growth outlook. Cyclical equity sectors have been underperforming defensives since June 1st, the 10-year Treasury…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that Canadian fiscal policy is likely to remain supportive for growth over the next few years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a snap federal election for September 20. The timing of…
Germany's Q2 GDP was revised up to 1.6% q/q versus the initial estimate of 1.5% q/q. The latest figure reduces the GDP gap relative to Q4 2019 to 3.2%. The details of the release reveal that while government spending and gross capital formation recovered…
Our Global Investment strategists recently argued that over the next 12 months, US inflation will decline fast enough to allow the Federal Reserve to maintain its accommodative monetary stance, but not as fast as investors are expecting. Going forward, even…
IHS Markit's flash PMIs for August reveal a bifurcated economic performance among major developed markets. Economic activity continues to be weighed down by negative pandemic dynamics in Australia and Japan where COVID-19 infections are rising, vaccination…
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index surprised to the upside in July, rising to 0.53 from -0.01, and beating expectations of 0.12. The positive reading suggests that the US economy grew at an above-trend pace which is favorable for the outlook for US…
US President Joe Biden's approval rating is tumbling as earlier, optimistic statements about the fight against the pandemic and the withdrawal from Afghanistan have gone up in smoke. However, investors should not conclude that Biden's administration is…
BCA Research's US Investment Strategy service concludes that financial asset valuations are elevated, but a de-rating catalyst may not emerge any time soon. The team considers what is known and what is unknown about equity valuations and lists the series…