Economy
Our Commodities strategists assessed the outlook for oil as crude remains pulled between geopolitical and fundamentals forces. OPEC+’s decision to raise oil supply is driven more by geopolitics than economics. A sustained improvement in Chinese oil…
A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.
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The Opposite Effect Our
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US JOLTS: A Stale But Key Snapshot
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Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and fiscal impulse of 3.8% of…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by seasonality, as the shifting…
Although there may be a method to DOGE’s 100-mile-an-hour madness, we think the worries and uncertainty stoked by it and on-again, off-again tariff measures have increased the probability of a recession while bringing forward its start date. We are therefore tactically downgrading equities to underweight and upgrading fixed income and cash to overweight. Investors should pursue a defensive posture.
Our Emerging Markets strategists assessed Colombian assets after a significant rally. Colombia faces deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges that will not be easily reversed by a right-wing government in 2026. Public debt is on an unsustainable path, with…
The February US jobs report was slightly weaker than expected, reflecting a slowing but still healthy labor market. At 151k, payrolls missed estimates. January’s number was revised down from 143k to 125k, bringing the 3-month moving average below 200k. The…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional disparities persist. Structural…