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Economy

Will Trump Make Europe Great Again?
While the main Q1 2025 theme has been “America First”, the year-to-date market story has been more nuanced. “America First” would suggest an outperformance of US assets, but it is European assets that have started the year on a strong footing: The EURO STOXX…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
German Election: Winds Of Change, Again

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high. 

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma
US Dollar: Breakout Or Breakdown?

In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Swiss Core Inflation Surprises To The Upside
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank’s 0%-to-2% inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US: Hot PPI Points To Cooler PCE
The January US Producer Price Index came in slightly hotter than estimates, but decelerated to 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) from an upwardly-revised 0.5% in December. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, was also stronger than expected, but also…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Watch This Indicator For A -20 Percent Market Slump

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US: Hot January CPI Leaves Underlying Disinflationary Trend Unchanged
The January US CPI came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation accelerated to 0.5% m/m (3.0% y/y), and core to 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y). Core goods and services inflation also moved higher, with the latter boosted by a sharp increase in car-insurance…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Peter Berezin's Thoughts Of The Day: Many Moving Parts

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
A Tactical Reprieve For European Assets?
While geopolitics captured the latest headlines, Eurozone  economic surprises  have turned positive, while those in the US are on the verge of turning negative. Global economic surprises hinge on expectations and realized data, and they play a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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