Economy

Special Report

The COVID-19 induced recession has accelerated several paradigm shifts that were already afoot. Populism, anti-immigrant sentiment, deglobalization, and fiscal profligacy were replete – particularly in the US – even before the pandemic. For the first time since WWII, the US budget deficit significantly expanded for three years running at a time when the unemployment rate was declining, late in the cycle. We fear that the Washington Consensus – a catchall term for fiscal prudence, laissez-faire economics, free trade, and unfettered capital flows – is being replaced by economic populism, by a Buenos Aires Consensus, as our geopolitical strategists have posited in the past. Buenos Aires Consensus is our catchall term for everything that is opposite of the Washington Consensus: less globalization, fiscal stimulus as far as the eyes can see, erosion of central bank independence, and a dirigiste (as opposed to laissez-faire) approach to economics that seeks to protect “state champions,” stifles innovation, and ultimately curbs productivity growth. The most important long-term consequence of the Buenos Aires Consensus will be higher inflation. And we are not talking just the asset price kind – which investors have enjoyed over the past decade – but of the more traditional flavor: consumer price inflation (Chart 1). Chart 1Inflation Is Coming A profligate US government where $3 trillion + fiscal packages are passed with a strong bipartisan consensus, rising odds of increased defense and infrastructure spending, a renewed focus on protecting America’s industrial champions from competition (foreign or domestic), and a robust protectionist agenda (again, on both sides of the aisle), are all inherently inflationary and negative for bonds, ceteris paribus. A whiff of inflation would be a positive for the broad equity market, further fueling the “risk on”, liquidity-driven, melt-up phase. However, historically when inflation has entered the 3.7%-4% zone in the past, the broad equity market has stumbled (Chart 2). Despite these powerful longer-term inflationary forces, our working assumption is that, in the next 9-12 months, headline CPI inflation will only renormalize, rather than surge, as the coronavirus-induced deficient demand and excess supply dynamic will take time to reach a new equilibrium (Chart 3). Chart 2Only A Whiff Of Inflation Is Good For Stocks Importantly, the magnitude of the economic damage, the likelihood that a “second wave” requires renewed lockdowns, and a new steady state of the apparent “square root” type of recovery remain unknown. This means that “deflationistas” may continue to have an upper hand on the “inflationistas”, as witnessed by the subdued inflation expectations (Chart 3). Chart 3In The Near-Term Disinflation Looms The Federal Reserve’s Function As The Lender Of Last Resort What is certain is the Fed’s resolve to keep things gelled together and allow businesses and the economy enough time to heal and overcome the coronavirus shock. Simply put, there are high odds that the Fed will remain accommodative and take inflation risk “sitting down” for quite some time, certainly for the next year, and likely longer (Chart 4). While early on, the Powell-led Fed had been ambivalent, the FOMC’s swift and immense response to the coronavirus calamity with unorthodox monetary policies has been appropriate and unprecedented (Chart 5). Clearly, the sloshing liquidity cannot cure the coronavirus, but providing the credit needed in parts of the financial markets and select business sectors that had completely dried up was the proper policy response. The Fed acted promptly as a lender of last resort. Unlike the difficulty in defeating deflation – look no further than Japan – ending inflation is easy. The great Paul Volcker has taught the Fed and the world how to break the back of inflation. The Fed, therefore, has the credible tools to deal with a possible inflationary impulse. Chart 4Do Not Fight The Mighty Fed Chart 5Joined At The Hip Until economic growth regains its footing and climbs to its post-GFC steady 2-2.5% real GDP growth profile, the probability is high that the Fed will take some inflation risk (Chart 6). Chart 6The Fed Can Afford To Take Inflation Risk This is especially the case given that political risk in the US is tilted to the downside. With income inequality at nose bleeds levels, US policymakers (both fiscal and monetary authorities) will hesitate to act on the inflation mandate with gusto and objectivity (Chart 7). Chart 7The Apex Of Globalization And Income Inequality The Fed will therefore not rush to abruptly tighten monetary policy, a view confirmed by the bond market: fed funds futures are penciling a negative fed funds rate in mid-2021 and ZIRP as far as the eye can see (Chart 8). A sustainable breakout in bond yields would require inflation (and to a lesser extent real GDP growth) to significantly surprise to the upside, which would compel the Fed to aggressively raise the fed funds rate. But that is not on the immediate horizon especially given the recent coronavirus-related blow to unit labor costs (please see Appendix below). Even if there were an inflationary backup in longer term Treasury yields, yield curve control is a tool the Fed is considering, something it first tried on the Treasury’s orders during and following WWII for a nine year period. Chart 8ZIRP As Far As The Eye Can See Dollar And The Inflationary Valve Importantly, the US dollar’s direction will be critical in determining whether any lasting inflation acceleration occurs. The top panel of Chart 9 shows that inflation accelerates during U.S. dollar bear markets. A depreciating greenback greases the wheels of the global financial system and also serves as a global growth locomotive given that trade is largely conducted in US dollars (bottom panel, Chart 9). Thus, the Fed’s recent US dollar swap lines to other Central Banks, along with its FIMA facility, were instrumental in unclogging the global financial system. Sloshing US dollar liquidity restored a semblance of normality to asset prices (Chart 10). Chart 9Inversely Correlated Chart 10Ample Liquidity To Debase The Greenback As we highlighted in our December 16 Special Report titled “Top US Sector Investment Ideas For The Next Decade” ,1 there are rising odds that a US dollar bear market takes root this decade. Eventually, the steeper the greenback’s fall, the higher the chance of a longer lasting inflationary spurt as US import price inflation will rear its ugly head (Chart 11). Chart 11US Dollar Bear Markets Are Synonymous With Inflation So What? While, in the near-term, accelerating inflation is a negligible risk owing to excess economic slack, in the intermediate-term, it is a rising probability outcome. BCA’s long-held de-globalization theme,2 the US/Sino trade war that is here to stay irrespective of the next electoral outcome and excessive US government fiscal largesse will likely, in the next two-to-three years, swing the global deflation/inflation pendulum toward sustained inflation (Chart 12). For investors that are worried about the prospect of higher inflation, the purpose of this Special Report is to serve as an equity sector positioning roadmap, especially if inflationary pressures become more acute sooner than we anticipate. Chart 12Deglobalization Will Result In Inflation Historically, inflation has been synonymous with an aggressive Fed and hard asset outperformance, suggesting that deep cyclical sectors would be the primary beneficiaries. Table 1 shows that over the last six major inflationary cycles, energy, materials, real estate and health care have been consistent outperformers. On the flip side, utilities, tech and telecom have been clear underperformers. The remaining sectors have been a mixed bag. Table 1S&P 500 Sector Performance During Inflationary Periods With the exception of real estate, our portfolio will benefit from an accelerating inflationary backdrop. However, our early- and late-cyclical preference to defensives is a consequence of the current stage of the cycle: when in recession it pays to have a cyclical portfolio bent (please see Charts 6 and 7 from our mid-April Weekly Report).3 Ultimately, we expect relative profit trends to dictate relative performance on a cyclical investment horizon, and are not rushing to further shift our portfolio in order to benefit from accelerating inflation. What follows is a one page per sector analysis of the impact of inflation on pricing power and performance. Sectors are ranked by their average returns (largest to smallest) in the six inflationary cycles we studied as shown on Table 1.   Anastasios Avgeriou US Equity Strategist anastasios@bcaresearch.com Health Care Health care stocks have consistently outperformed during the six inflationary periods we examined. Over the long haul, it has paid to overweight this sector given the structural uptrend in relative share prices. Spending on health care services is non-cyclical and demand for such services is on a secular rise around the globe most recently further catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic: in the developed markets driven largely by the aging population and in the emerging markets by the accelerating adoption of health care safety nets and higher standards. Chart 13Health Care Health care pricing power is expanding at a healthy clip, outshining overall CPI. Importantly, recent geopolitical uncertainty had cast a shadow on the sector’s pricing power prospects that suffered from a constant derating. Now that political uncertainty has lifted as Biden is a more moderate Democratic President candidate than either Sanders or Warren, a rerating looms. Finally, demand for health care goods and services will not only remain robust, but also get a boost from the recent coronavirus pandemic as governments around the globe beef up their health care response systems. Chart 14Health Care Energy The energy sector comes out on top of the median relative return results in times of inflation, and second best in average terms (Table 1 above). Oil price surges are typically synonymous with other forms of inflation. During the six inflationary periods we analyzed, all but one period were associated with relative share outperformance. Oil producers in particular benefit from the increase in the underlying commodity almost immediately (assuming little to no hedging), which also serves as an excellent inflation hedge. Chart 15Energy Relative energy pricing power collapsed during the COVID-19 accelerated recession plumbing multi-decade lows. Saudi Arabia’s decision in early-2020 to refrain from balancing the oil market triggered a plunge in WTI crude oil prices to negative $40/bbl. While global demand remains deficient, this breakdown in oil prices has brought some much needed supply discipline in global oil producers including US shale. As the reopening of economies takes hold oil demand will recover and absorb excess oil inventories. While base effects will push crude oil inflation to the stratosphere in Q1/2021, eventually a more balanced global oil market will pave the way to a sustainable rebound in oil prices. Chart 16Energy Real Estate REITs have outperformed the overall market during the five inflationary periods we analyzed, exemplifying their hard asset profile. While the 1976-81 iteration skewed the mean results, REITs still come out with the third best showing among the top eleven sectors even on median return basis (Table 1 above). Real estate prices tend to appreciate when inflation is accelerating, because landlords have consistently raised rents at least on a par with inflation. Chart 17Real Estate Following the GFC trough, REITs pricing power has outpaced the overall CPI. CRE selling prices had been on a tear since the GFC, but the ongoing recession has short-circuited this hard asset’s near uninterrupted price appreciation; according to Green Street Advisors, average CRE prices contracted by roughly 10% in April. Worrisomely the persistent multi-family construction boom and the “amazonification” of the economy will act as a restraint to the apartment REIT and shopping center REIT segments, respectively. Tack on the longer-term knock-on effects of the work-from-home wave that has staying power and even office REITs may suffer a demand-related deflationary shock. Chart 18Real Estate Materials Materials equities have a tight positive correlation with accelerating inflation. Resource-related stocks are the closest representation of hard assets, given their ability to store value among the eleven GICS1 sectors. As inflation takes root and commodity prices rise, materials sales and EPS growth get a boost with relative share prices following right behind. Chart 19Materials Our relative materials pricing power gauge is currently contracting, but encouragingly it is showing some signs of stabilization. The drubbing in Chinese GDP in Q1 has dealt a blow to commodities-related demand and thus prices as infrastructure projects ground to a halt. As the Chinese economy has restarted slightly ahead of developed markets a return to normalcy is a high probability outcome in the back half of the year. Keep in mind that the delayed effect of stimulus spending should also hit in Q3 and Q4 likely further tightening commodity markets. Chart 20Materials Consumer Discretionary While the overall trend in consumer discretionary stocks has been higher since the mid-1970s, relative performance mostly declines during inflationary times. Consumer spending takes the backseat as a performance driver when interest rates rise on the back of higher inflation. In addition, previous inflationary periods have also coincided with surging energy prices, representing another source of diminishing consumer discretionary purchasing power. Chart 21Consumer Discretionary Consumer discretionary selling prices are expanding relative to overall wholesale price inflation, and are on a trajectory to hit double digit growth. Deflating energy prices, ultra-loose monetary conditions and the $3tn fiscal stimulus have kept the US consumer afloat. As Washington and the Fed are providing a lifeline to the economy during the recession, the reopening of the economy has the potential to turbo-charge consumer discretionary spending as pent up demand will get unleashed. Chart 22Consumer Discretionary Financials Financials relative returns are neither hot nor cold when inflation rears its ugly head. In fact they sit in the middle of the pack in terms of relative median and mean returns. This lack of consistency reflects different factors that exerted significant influence in some of these inflationary periods. Moreover, Chart 23 shows that relative share prices have been mean reverting since the 1960s, likely blurring the inflation influence. Ultimately, the yield curve, credit growth and credit quality determine the path of least resistance for the relative share price ratio of this early cyclical sector. Chart 23Financials Financials sector pricing power has jumped by about 450bps since the 2019 trough and have exited deflation. Given the recent steepening of the yield curve that is typical at the depths of the recession, the odds are high that sector pricing power will remain firm via rising net interest margins. Any easing in the regulatory backdrop even temporary could also provide a fillip to margins and offset the large precautionary provisioning that banks are taking to combat the looming recession-related losses. Chart 24Financials Industrials The industrials sector tends to outperform during inflationary periods. In fact, relative share prices have risen 50% of the time since the mid-1960s when inflation was accelerating. The two oil shocks in the 1970s raised the profile of all commodity-related sectors as investors were scrambling to find reliable inflation hedges. Chart 25Industrials Following a three-year period in the deflation zone, industrials relative pricing power is steadily rising, likely as a consequence of decreasing supplies, CEO discipline and the ongoing US/Sino trade war. The previously expansionary mindset has given way to retrenchment, as the scars from the late-2015/early 2016 manufacturing recession remain fresh. However, infrastructure spending is slated to increase at some point in late-2020 as China revs its economic engine and bolster the demand prospects for this deep cyclical sector. Chart 26Industrials Consumer Staples Similar to the health care sector, consumer staples stocks have been stellar outperformers over the past 55 years. The sector’s track record during the six inflationary periods we studied is split down the middle. Most consumer staples companies are global conglomerates and their efforts have been focused on building global consumer brands, allowing them to implement a stickier pricing strategy. As a result, overall inflation/deflation pressures are more benign. Chart 27Consumer Staples Relative consumer staples pricing power has slingshot higher and is flirting with the upper bound of the past three decade range near the 10% mark. The current recession has augmented the status of consumer staples. While the lockdowns has dealt a blow to select discretionary purchases, demand for staples has actually increased according to recent retail sales and inflation data releases. Tack on falling commodity input costs and the implication is that consumer staples manufacturers will likely continue to enjoy widening profit margins. Chart 28Consumer Staples Tech Technology stocks have underperformed every time inflation has accelerated with two exceptions, in the mid-to-late 1960s and mid-to-late 1970s. Creative destruction forces in the tech industry are inherently deflationary. As a result, tech business models have evolved to thrive during disinflationary periods. Moreover, tech stocks have become more mature than is typically perceived, generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. Cash flow growth is also steadier than in the past and has served as a catalyst to embark on shareholder friendly activities. Chart 29Tech Tech companies are constantly mired in deflation. While relative pricing power has been in an uptrend since 2016, it has recently soared as tech companies preserved their pricing power, but overall wholesale inflation has suffered a sizable setback. Importantly, demand for tech goods and services has remained resilient during the current recession, further adding to the allure of the tech sector. Chart 30Tech Utilities Utilities relative returns during inflationary bouts are the second worst among the top eleven sectors on an average basis and dead last on a median return basis (Table 1 above). In five out of the six inflationary phases we examined, utilities stocks suffered a setback. The industry’s lack of economic leverage and fixed income attributes anchor the relative share price ratio during inflationary times. Chart 31Utilities Our utilities sector pricing power proxy has sprung to life recently moderately outpacing overall inflation. Natural gas prices, the industry’s marginal price setter, have risen 18% since the early-April trough, signaling that recent utility pricing power gains have more upside. Nevertheless, as the economy is gradually reopening, soft data will stage a V-shaped recovery bolstering the odds of a selloff in the bond market. Such a backdrop will dampen the demand for high-yielding defensive equities, including pricey utilities. Chart 32Utilities Telecom Services Relative telecom services performance and inflation appear broadly inversely correlated since the early 1970s, underperforming 60% of the time when core PCE prices accelerate. Importantly, in two of the periods we studied (during the late-70s and the TMT bubble) the drawdowns were massive, skewing the mean results portrayed in Table 1 above. This fixed income proxy sector tends to suffer in times of inflation as competing assets dilute its yield appeal and vice versa. Chart 33Telecom Services Telecom services pricing power has been on a recovery mode since February 2017 when Verizon surprised investors and embarked on a price war by reinstating its unlimited plans in order to defend its market share. Importantly, earlier in the year telecom carriers relative selling prices exited deflation coinciding with the completion of the T-Mobile/Sprint deal. Intra-industry M&A is over as now only three major wireless providers are left raising the threat of monopolistic power. Nevertheless, the ongoing 5G deployment is of the utmost importance for telecom carriers and a foray further into cable/media/content services is inevitable so that the telecom incumbents move beyond being “dumb pipelines”. Chart 34Telecom Services Appendix Chart A1 Chart A2 Chart A3 Chart A4 Chart A5 Chart A6     Footnotes 1     Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Special Report, “Top US Sector Investment Ideas For The Next Decade” dated December 16, 2019, available at uses.bcaresearch.com 2     Please see BCA Geopolitical Strategy Special Report, “The Apex Of Globalization - All Downhill From Here” dated November 12, 2014, available at gps.bcaresearch.com 3    Please see BCA US Equity Strategy Weekly Report, “Fight Central Banks At Your Own Peril” dated April 14, 2020, available at uses.bcaresearch.com.

Highlights There are no atheists in foxholes, and no Austrians ahead of this election: Republican senators and White House staffers may grumble about giveaways, but they cannot risk being painted as the Grinch who Stole Essential Services in the homestretch of the campaign. A Biden victory will mean a leftward swing: Our geopolitical strategists believe markets are underestimating the extent to which a Biden victory would lead to a less friendly backdrop for investment capital. Tensions with China are likely to escalate: China-bashing is popular with the electorate, and a desperate White House may turn up the heat to recover its standing in the polls. The battle for great-power supremacy remains unresolved. The pandemic is causing the retreat from globalization to accelerate before our eyes: Curtailing offshoring and building new redundancies into supply chains will weigh on corporate profit margins and undermine earnings growth. Feature We had the pleasure of sitting down with Matt Gertken, the leader of BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy service, for a webcast last week. The timing could not have been better, as the pandemic has thrust Washington into the spotlight and the campaign will keep it there until Election Day. This report blends the US Investment Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy teams’ takes on the broad themes we discussed and is a starting point for thinking about the 2020 election and its financial market implications. We will return to the topic throughout the summer and early fall as developments unfold. Republicans in the Senate can talk tough now, but they will have to knuckle under if they want to keep their majority (and the White House). Future Fiscal Largesse Though the scale of the CARES Act was huge, powering the United States to the head of the global class in terms of fiscal stimulus (Chart 1), both parties were discussing the next phase of COVID-19 relief before the ink on the bill was dry. Two months later, that momentum has stalled as Republicans have begun to push back against a fifth wave of spending (the CARES Act was the third). Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has taken direct aim at the $600 weekly federal unemployment benefit supplement, scheduled to expire at the end of July, calling unemployment benefits in excess of pay an “aberration,” and pledging that the program will be extended “over [his] dead body.” Chart 1A Massive Amount Of Fiscal Stimulus That benefit may be generous on a Scandinavian scale,1 but along with the direct $1,200 payments sent to nearly two-thirds of households, it is helping the economy withstand deleterious social distancing measures. Shoring up the finances of vulnerable households will help them stay current on their auto loans and rent or mortgage payments, staving off a wave of repossessions, evictions and foreclosures, and preventing a cascading chain of defaults that would intensify the economic pressure. Table 1The Battleground States Need Help Graham’s rhetorical flourishes aside, Republicans cannot hand the Democrats an opening to cast them as Scrooge when the campaign intensifies in late summer. Trump’s 2016 victory turned on flipping Florida and Rust Belt stalwarts Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin from the Democrats, and all those states are in play again except Ohio (Chart 2). Unemployment is elevated in the battleground Rust Belt states, and we think it must be higher than the official measure in a state as dependent on tourism as Florida (Table 1).2 Channeling the Grinch by taking unemployment benefits and essential workers away from put-upon voters in pivotal states3 is not a winning electoral strategy. Caught between an aid proposal that both Democrats and the White House want, Republican senators will ultimately have to concede. Chart 2The Midwest And Florida Are Crucial Rounding Out The Democratic Ticket Chart 3A New Obama-Biden Ticket? Presumptive Democratic nominee Biden is considering the pool of candidates to fill the number two spot on the ticket. Vice-presidential picks generate a lot of discussion when they’re made, but they typically have little influence on election outcomes. Among this year’s crop of contenders for the presidential nomination, only Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) could fulfill the typical VP function of helping to land a swing state. Klobuchar would likely appeal to soccer moms and suburban independents capable of being swayed back to the Democrats, but her moderate sensibilities wouldn’t expand Biden’s appeal to the party’s progressive wing or inspire younger voters. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) could help attract progressives and younger voters who see Biden as the status quo, but her antipathy toward big business could turn off swing voters and she would come at the cost of a senate seat.4 Voters have an unfavorable view of Kamala Harris (D-CA) and her contentious exchanges with Biden in the early debates could make for an awkward pairing. Stacey Abrams has recently entered the picture and would be an asset if she were able to increase African-American voter turnout, but she has a thin government resume. Michelle Obama is the only choice who would make a splash and significantly boost Biden’s prospects. She is viewed way more favorably than the rest of the field (Chart 3), would solidify Biden’s connection with Barack Obama, and increase turnout among the progressive, female, and minority voters the ticket needs to tip the scales in its favor. Unfortunately for the Democrats, she has unequivocally indicated that she does not wish to run. Biden has said he’d welcome her onto the ticket in a second, and he will likely put off his choice until efforts to draft her definitively fail. Michelle Obama could shake up the race if the Democrats can convince her to join the ticket. Investors should keep an eye on the Democratic ticket. Joe Biden will turn 78 in November. He will be a one-term president if he wins, and his public appearances suggest that he’s slower on the draw than he used to be. He may rely on his second-in-command much more than the average president and she will immediately become the odds-on favorite for the 2024 nomination. If the Democrats gain control of the Senate alongside a Biden victory, as our Geopolitical Strategy service projects, financial markets may have to begin discounting a future with materially less friendly regulatory and tax policy. China Tensions Will Not Go Away Chart 4The Middle Kingdom Is Out Of Favor Our geopolitical strategists have long flagged US-China tensions as the paramount geopolitical flashpoint. The only standalone nations with superpower potential are engaged in a long-term struggle for hegemony. The trade tensions that waxed and waned across all of 2019 were only one act of a longer-running play. Investors should not have been lulled into thinking the Phase 1 trade agreement would end the friction between the two countries. Politicians can be counted upon to give their constituents what they want, especially during election campaigns. China’s unpopularity with US voters has reached a new high in the wake of the pandemic (Chart 4), and candidates are likely to compete with one another to appear tougher on China. Between now and the election, there is a possibility that tensions could ramp up considerably. If the president finds his re-election prospects suffering from the COVID-19 outbreak and soaring unemployment, he may look to transform himself into a wartime president, boldly asserting American interests globally, and serially baiting an unpopular foe like China. Profit Margin Pressures Are Coming Except when interrupted by recessions, S&P 500 profit margins have climbed steadily higher since the early ‘90s (Chart 5). Several factors contributed to the increase in corporate profitability: the PC revolution, outsourcing, China’s entry into the WTO, the declining power of labor unions and, punctuating the rise in 2018, the 40% cut in the top marginal corporate tax rate (from 35% to 21%). If the Democrats take the White House and the Senate, we expect that corporate tax rates will swiftly rise. The top marginal rate may not go all the way back to 35%, but it has room to rise from its lowest level since before the US entered World War II (Chart 6), and any increase will represent a profit headwind. Re-configuring supply chains will reduce margins. Higher taxes will, too, if Democrats can take the White House and the Senate. Chart 5Corporate Profit Margins Are Vulnerable Chart 6A Democratic Sweep Will Lead To Higher Taxes Our Geopolitical Strategy service identified peak globalization as an important theme not long after it began publishing in 2012. The outbreak of the pandemic seems as if it will accelerate the retreat from globalization (Chart 7), and any reduction in outsourcing is likely to weigh on profit margins until automated inputs can supplant more expensive domestic labor. Onshoring is not the only factor likely to increase corporate costs after the pandemic, however. Companies are likely to seek to diversify their supply chains so that they are not so reliant on a single country or supplier. Building up redundancies within supply chains will make those chains more stable, but it will also increase costs. Chart 7The Pandemic Is Accelerating The Trend Away From Globalization A Biden victory is not the only source of election downside. If the president wins re-election, the odds of tariff conflicts with Europe will rise significantly. Unconstrained by having to contest another election, the administration could ratchet up the pressure on Europe, prompting certain retaliation from Brussels. Our strategists see a greater chance for trade peace, ex-China, if Biden captures the White House. Investment Implications The overriding questions on investors’ minds are why the stock market and the economy have parted company so decisively and how long they can continue to diverge. Our explanation turns on policy: the Fed has intervened mightily to hold down Treasury yields and keep financial markets functioning, while Congress has thrown open the federal coffers to keep laid-off workers and suddenly teetering businesses afloat. The social distancing measures imposed to slow the spread of COVID-19 caused economic activity to crater. Monetary and fiscal policy have been deployed to build a bridge over that crater, lest capital, people and businesses disappear into it like the Union troops at Petersburg. Ever since they began to rally in late March, financial markets have focused exclusively on the bridge. The Fed has the capacity and the will to install more monetary planks should the crater prove to be wider than initially estimated. Congress’ commitment is shakier, but the election will compel Republicans to provide more funding should it become necessary to prevent a dire outcome. The virus alone will dictate how long the bridge will have to be in place and investors can only guess at the virus' future course. Given the stock market’s pattern of surging on positive preliminary data for potential treatments or vaccines and barely easing when those data are shown to hold far less promise, it appears that its expectations are skewed to the right-hand side of the distribution. There appears to be considerable room for disappointment on the public health front. The possibility that markets are giving short shrift to a robust second wave of infections, or overestimating the speed with which a vaccine can be developed and distributed, is not a reason to short equities or be underweight them in balanced portfolios, though. The rally has been too strong, and there is a subset of right-tail outcomes that could well come to pass. We continue to expect a correction, and are carrying excess cash to prepare for it, but we are maintaining a neutral tactical outlook in the event of a positive surprise. We are optimistic about equities’ prospects over a twelve-month timeframe. Our rationale is that easy monetary policy and generous fiscal spending will outlive the social distancing measures they were prescribed to treat. Low interest rates, ample liquidity and pumped-up aggregate demand form a highly supportive backdrop for equities and should help them handily outperform bonds. The difference between our outlook and the equity market’s may simply be a matter of timing; the resurgent S&P 500 seems to be skipping ahead to the twelve-month conclusion and looking through the uncertainties that will arise along the way. The bears face daunting odds if Congress approves a meaningful fifth phase of fiscal stimulus: every trillion dollars extends the dark US bar in Chart 1 by another five percentage points. TIPS will eventually be the asset of choice when the debt has to be repaid but, in the meantime, equities have undeniable appeal.   Doug Peta, CFA Chief US Investment Strategist dougp@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1 According to a new working paper, the median unemployed worker is eligible for benefit payments equivalent to 134% of his/her pre-layoff compensation. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27216 Accessed May 26, 2020. 2 Nevada, home to the Magic Kingdom for adults, has the nation’s highest unemployment rate (28.2%). 3 Most state constitutions mandate balanced budgets. In the absence of federal aid, local school, fire, police and public hospital payrolls will have to be pared in response to declining sales and income tax revenues. 4 Massachusetts’ Republican governor would get to appoint her replacement until a special election could be held.

Feature The key to how markets will move over the coming 12 months is whether the coronavirus pandemic turns out to be a short-term (albeit severe) disruption to the world economy, or something more fundamentally damaging. Markets currently – with global equities up by 34% since March 23 – are clearly pricing in the former. They seem to be saying that the sudden stop to the economy – with US employment, for example, rising to a post-war high in just two months (Chart 1) – is not a problem, since most of the unemployed are furloughed and will quickly return to work once businesses reopen. Enormous stimulus (direct fiscal spending in G20 countries of 4.6% of GDP, even if loans and guarantees are excluded – Chart 2) and aggressive monetary policy (major central banks’ balance sheets have ballooned by $4.7trn since March – Chart 3) will tide us over until normality returns, and then provide a big boost to risk assets. Unprecedented efforts by drugs companies will soon produce a vaccine against COVID-19. Recommended Allocation   Chart 1Can Unemployment Come Down As Quickly? Chart 2Unprecedented Fiscal… Chart 3...And Monetary Stimulus All this is possible. Certainly, the amount of excess liquidity being pumped into the economy by central banks (Chart 4) could dramatically boost economic activity and asset prices once the world returns to normal. The newsflow over coming months may largely be positive, with a gradual easing of lockdowns, a rebound in economic data (it cannot mathematically get any worse), and an abatement of the pandemic during the northern hemisphere summer. Many investors remain pessimistic (Chart 5) and so may be pulled into markets if stocks continue to rise. In this environment – and with the alternatives so unattractive (10-year US Treasurys at 0.6% anyone?) – we wouldn’t want to take a bet against equities. Chart 4Liquidity Will Boost Assets - Eventually But is the market ignoring the risks? Easing of lockdown could lead to a flare-up of new COVID-19 cases: China has already had to reintroduce some containment measures when this happened (Chart 6). Chart 5Retail Investors Remain Bearish   Chart 6What Happens When Lockdowns Are Eased? While COVID-19 cases have peaked in Asia, Europe, and North America, there is a new wave in Emerging Markets, particularly those such as Brazil which were lax in implementing containment measures (Chart 7). Even where the pandemic has waned, consumers seem highly reluctant to go to restaurants (Chart 8) or fly on airplanes (Chart 9). Chart 7The Pandemic Is Shifting To Emerging Economies Consumer-facing companies may no longer see revenues down by 70% or 80% over the next few months, but they could still be 10% or 20% below normal levels. How many business models are robust enough to survive that? As for a vaccine, it is worth remembering that no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus in humans. We may have to learn to live with the disease. Chart 8Consumers Are Not Yet Going To Restaurants... Chart 9…Or On Planes The longer the pandemic lasts, the more damaging will be its second-round effects. Already banks are turning more cautious about lending (Chart 10), and rating agencies are rapidly downgrading companies (Chart 11). We are likely to see a wave of corporate defaults, Emerging Market borrowers struggling to service their foreign-currency debts, and banks getting into trouble as a result – though monetary and fiscal bridging programs may defer these problems for a while. Chart 10Banks Are Turning More Cautious... Chart 11...And Companies Are Being Downgraded The US/China relationship is also a concern in the run-up to November’s US presidential election. It will be tempting for President Trump to turn tough on China, a policy that could be popular with the US electorate, which has become more anti-China in recent months (Chart 12). Problems over Hong Kong, China failing to hit the import targets it promised in January’s trade agreement, and action against Huawei (whose license expires in mid-August) mean that the conflict could escalate quickly. China would also much prefer Joe Biden as US president, and will do nothing to help President Trump get reelected. Chart 12Being Tough On China Is Popular In The US Chart 13The Dollar Has Not Reacted To The Risk-On Rally In this environment of unusual uncertainty, we continue to leaven our benchmark-weight position in global equities with relatively cautious tilts: overweight the lower-beta US market and structural-growth sectors such as Healthcare and Tech. We maintain our large position in cash, and would continue to hold gold as a hedge against tail risks. The risk to this view is that over coming months – if the environment continues to stabilize – there is a vicious rotation into pure cyclical plays, perhaps driven by a fall in the US dollar (which has until recently been surprisingly stable during the past two months’ risk-on rally – Chart 13), a rise in commodity prices, and higher long-term interest rates. This scenario would trigger outperformance by Emerging Markets and eurozone stocks, and value-oriented sectors such as Materials and Financials. This might be possible for a short period but, given the risks highlighted above, we would not recommend long-term investors to shift their portfolios in this direction.   Equities: Our “minimum volatility” approach has worked well: US equities and structural growth sectors such as Healthcare and Tech continued to outperform both during the sell-off in February and March and in the subsequent rebound (Chart 14). For now, we prefer to stick to this cautious stance on a 12-month investment horizon. It is possible, though, that there could be some short-term rotation into value and small cap stocks if the environment improves further over the next couple of months (Chart 15). We are partially hedged against this sort of upside surprise through our overweight in Industrials (which would benefit from a ramp-up in Chinese infrastructure spending, in particular) and neutral on Emerging Markets and Australia. Chart 14"Min Vol" Equities Have Outperformed Chart 15Could There Be A Shift To Value And Small Caps? Fixed Income: Government bond yields have not risen despite the risk-on rally, and we expect this to remain the case. Continuing uncertainty, central bank insistence that easy monetary policies will stay in place for a long time, and deflationary pressures over coming months warrant a neutral stance on duration – though returns from high-quality government bonds will be around zero. In the longer-run, however, the pandemic is likely to prove inflationary: like in a post-war environment, excess liquidity, supply constraints, and pent-up demand could push up consumer prices in 12 months’ time. Consumers are already noticing that the goods they are actually buying now (as opposed to the weightings in the consumption basket used to measure inflation) are rising in price (Chart 16). We recommend TIPS as a hedge, particularly given how cheap they are (with the 10-year breakeven at only 1.2%). Corporate credits that are supported by central bank buying remain attractive, although with spreads having already contracted the easy money has been made (Chart 17). BCA Research’s fixed-income strategists prefer US and UK investment-grade and BB-rated corporate bonds in the Media, Financials and Energy sectors.1 Chart 16Consumers Are Sniffing Out Inflation Chart 17The Easy Money Has Been Made In Credit Currencies: It will pay to watch the US dollar. It is overvalued and no longer supported by interest rate differentials, but as a safe haven currency has seen inflows given global economic uncertainty. For now, we remain neutral. Emerging Market currencies are likely to remain under pressure, particularly since EM central banks have followed the example of their Developed Market counterparts and for the first time embarked on QE to boost their economies (Chart 18). This could lead to rising inflation in some EMs, as central banks essentially monetize government debt. Chart 18EM Central Banks Are Starting QE Too Commodities: China has quietly been ramping up its credit growth, and this will eventually have a positive impact on industrial metals prices, which have showed tentative signs of bottoming (Chart 19). The rebound in oil prices has further to run. OPEC oil production is likely to fall by around 4 million barrels/day from its Q4 2019 level, with further output drops from capital-constrained North American shale producers (Chart 20).   Chart 19Industrial Commodities Bottoming? Harder to predict is how quickly demand – currently down around 15% year-on-year – will recover. BCA Research’s oil strategists, based on an assumption of a strong demand revival in H2, forecast Brent crude to rise above $50 a barrel by end-2020. Chart 20Oil Supply Has Fallen Significantly Garry Evans, Senior Vice President Global Asset Allocation garry@bcaresearch.com Footnotes 1  Please see Global Fixed Income Strategy, "Hunting For Alpha In The Global Corporate Bond Jungle," dated May 27, 2020, available at gfis.bcaresearch.com. Recommended Asset Allocation

Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, we will be sending you a Special Report from my colleague Jonathan LaBerge. Jonathan will be examining the global effectiveness of recent pandemic containment measures to judge both the odds of a second infection wave and what policy responses are likely to be effective in countering one were it to occur. I hope you find the report insightful. Best regards, Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist Highlights Fiscal deficits have soared in the wake of the pandemic, putting government debt-to-GDP ratios on a trajectory to reach post-WWII highs in many countries. Contrary to popular belief, there is little reason to think that fiscal relief will make it more difficult for governments to repay their obligations down the road. Larger budget deficits tend to increase overall national savings when the economy is depressed because private savings rise more than enough to compensate for the decline in government savings. The end result is a higher level of national wealth that governments can tax in the future. That said, there is more than one way to tax national wealth. For political reasons, higher inflation coupled with financial repression may prove to be more feasible than other forms of taxation. While inflation is not an imminent risk, it could become a formidable problem in two-to-three years. Investors should maintain below-benchmark levels of duration in fixed-income portfolios and favor inflation-linked securities over nominal bonds. Gold prices will rise over the long haul. The yellow metal should perform well even in the near term if the dollar weakens during the remainder of this year, as we anticipate. Real estate investors should reallocate capital away from densely populated urban areas towards suburbs and farmland. Stay Cyclically Overweight Equities Global equities continued to climb higher this week, as more countries reopened their economies. As we discussed three weeks ago in our report entitled “Risks To The U,” the main downside risk facing stocks is a second wave of the disease.1 While the number of new COVID-19 cases has declined in many countries, it continues to rise in others. As a result, the global tally of new cases remains broadly flat. The daily number of deaths seems to be trending lower, but that could easily reverse if social distancing measures are abandoned too quickly (Chart 1). Chart 1COVID-19: Global New Cases Remain Broadly Flat, While Deaths Seem To Be Trending Slightly Lower Chart 2Joined At The Hip Given this risk, we do not have a strong near-term (3-month) view on the direction of equities. Google searches for the “coronavirus” have closely correlated with equity prices and credit spreads (Chart 2). If fears of a new outbreak were to escalate, risk assets would suffer. Looking at a cyclical (12-month) horizon, we still recommend a modest overweight to stocks. Even if a vaccine does not become available later this year, increased testing should allow for a more economically palatable approach to containment strategies. Ample fiscal support will also help. As we provocatively asked in a report entitled “Could The Pandemic Lead To Higher Stock Prices?”,2 one can easily imagine a scenario where central banks keep rates near zero for the foreseeable future, while ongoing fiscal stimulus enables the labor market to reach full employment. Such an outcome could allow corporate profits to return to pre-pandemic levels, but leave the discount rate lower than before. The end result would be a higher fair value for the stock market. Although we would not counsel investors to bank on such a fortuitous outcome, the probability of it occurring is reasonably high – probably in the range of 30%-to-40%. This makes us inclined to favor stocks over a cyclical horizon. Will Indebted Governments Spoil The Party? One potential flaw in this bullish thesis is that massive government deficits could push up interest rates, crowding out private-sector investment in the process. As we argue below, such worries are misplaced for now. For the time being, bigger budget deficits will likely lead to an increase in overall savings, thus raising investment relative to what would have happened in the absence of any stimulus. That said, as we conclude towards the end of this report, there will come a time – probably in two-to-three years – when most economies are back to full employment. If budget deficits are still high at that point, inflation and long-term bond yields could end up rising substantially. Keynes To The Rescue The IMF expects budget deficits in advanced economies to exceed 10% of GDP in 2020, significantly higher than during the financial crisis. The sea of red ink is projected to push government debt-to-GDP ratios to fresh highs in many economies (Chart 3). Chart 3AGovernment Debt Levels Have Surged In The Wake Of The Pandemic Chart 3BGovernment Debt Levels Have Surged In The Wake Of The Pandemic Chart 4The Paradox Of Thrift: Not Just A Theory Should bond investors be worried? Not for now. One of John Maynard Keynes’ great insights was that an individual’s attempt to increase savings could lead to a collective decline in savings, a phenomenon he called the paradox of thrift. Keynes argued that if everyone tried to save more, the resulting contraction in spending would cause total employment to fall by so much that overall income would decline by more than spending. As a result, aggregate savings would fall. This is precisely what happened during the Great Depression and in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (Chart 4). The paradox of thrift implies that bigger budget deficits in a depressed economy will lead to an increase in overall savings, as private savings rise more than one dollar for every dollar decline in government savings. S-I=CA One can see this point using the familiar macroeconomic accounting identity which says that the difference between what a country saves and invests should equal its current account balance.3 In the absence of a change in the current account balance, any increase in investment will translate into an increase in savings. If the government stimulates aggregate demand by increasing spending, cutting taxes, or boosting transfer payments, companies are likely to respond by investing more (or at least not cutting capital expenditures as much as they would otherwise). Thus, if fiscal stimulus raises investment, it will also raise aggregate savings. Chart 5Huge Spike In The US Personal Savings Rate This conclusion has important implications for bond yields. If bigger budget deficits lead to an increase in overall savings, there is no reason to expect real bond yields to rise very much, at least in the short term. The failure of bond yields to rise since March, when governments began to trot out one fiscal stimulus package after another, is a testament to this fact. So too is the stimulus-induced surge in the US personal saving rate, which reached a record high of 33% in April (Chart 5). All That Money Printing If bigger government budget deficits are, in some sense, self-financing, why are so many people convinced that the Fed and other central banks are effectively “monetizing” deficits by buying up bonds? Part of the answer has to do with how one defines monetization. Governments create money whenever they purchase goods or services or make transfers to the public by running down their deposits at the central bank. In theory, the public could use that money to buy government bonds, which would allow the government to replenish its account at the central bank. In practice, it is usually a bit more circuitous than that. Chart 6Commercial Banks Deposits, Bank Reserve Held At The Fed, And Fed Holdings Of Treasuries Have All Expanded This Year What normally happens is that the public places the money in a commercial bank deposit and the commercial bank then transfers the money to its account at the central bank. Next, the central bank buys the bonds from the government, crediting the government’s deposit account at the central bank in the process. Chart 6 shows that this is precisely what has happened this year: Commercial bank deposits, bank reserves held at the Fed, and the Fed’s holdings of Treasuries have all risen by roughly the same amount. Granted, there is a bit more to the story. If the central bank buys bonds, it will push down bond yields at the margin, allowing the government to finance itself more cheaply than it could otherwise. However, this is a far cry from the sort of “money printing” that many people have in mind. True debt monetization occurs when governments lose all access to outside financing, forcing the central bank to pick up the tab. Such situations invariably involve accelerating inflation and a collapsing currency, which often culminates in hyperinflation. This is clearly not the case today. Back To Full Employment The idea that bigger budget deficits can generate enough private savings to more than fully compensate for any loss in government savings is applicable only for economies with spare capacity. Once the economy reaches full employment, fiscal stimulus will not lead to more income or production since everyone who wants a job already has one. At that point, bigger budget deficits will cause the economy to overheat and inflation to rise, potentially forcing the central bank to raise rates. Higher interest rates will reduce investment. Higher rates will also put upward pressure on the currency, leading to a reduction in net exports and a corresponding deterioration in the current account balance. If investment and the current account balance both decline, then savings, which is just the sum of the two, must also fall. Strategies For Alleviating A Debt Burden Once the free lunch from fiscal stimulus disappears, the question of how to address the government debt accumulated during the downturn becomes paramount. There are four ways to reduce the ratio of government debt-to-GDP: 1) outgrow the debt burden; 2) tighten fiscal policy; 3) default; and 4) inflate away the debt. Outgrowing It At the end of the Second World War, many governments found themselves saddled with high levels of debt. In the US, the government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 121% in 1945. In the UK, it hit 270%. In Canada, it reached 155%. For the most part, these governments did not repay the debt they incurred during the war. As Chart 7 shows, the nominal value of debt outstanding either rose or remained broadly constant following the war. What happened was that rapid GDP growth led to a shrinkage in debt-to-GDP ratios. Compared with the post-war period, the two drivers of an economy’s growth potential, labor force and productivity growth, are both weaker now. Thus, outgrowing the debt by raising the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio will be more difficult than in the past. It’s About g-r That said, the trajectory of the debt-to-GDP ratio does not depend solely on GDP growth; it also depends on the interest rate that the government pays to service its debt. Conceptually, it is the difference between the two that determines whether the level of any given budget deficit is sustainable or not. While trend GDP growth in advanced economies has declined since the 1950s, equilibrium interest rates have also fallen. As a consequence, the spread between growth rates and interest rates is only somewhat smaller in advanced economies today than it was in the 1950s and 60s and notably higher than it was in the 1980s and 90s (Chart 8). Indeed, as Chart 9 shows, g-r has been trending higher for hundreds of years! Chart 7The Case Of Outgrowing The Debt Burden Post-WWII Chart 8The Rate Of Economic Growth Has Been Higher Than Interest Rates   Chart 9A Multi-Century Trend In The Spread Between Growth And Interest Rates Today, government borrowing rates in most economies are well below trend growth rates. No matter the size of the budget deficit, the ratio of debt-to-GDP will converge to a stable level as long as the interest rate the government pays on the debt is below the growth rate of the economy.4  A Gordian Fiscal Knot Of course, there is no guarantee that real rates will remain below the rate of trend growth. As we have discussed before, the exodus of baby boomers from the labor force, a peak in globalization, and rising political populism could all curtail aggregate supply, leading to a depletion of national savings.5 What would happen if governments allowed debt levels to reach very high levels only to find that the neutral rate of interest — the interest rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation — has risen above the growth rate of the economy? Raising the policy rate would be very painful in a high-debt environment because even a small increase in interest rates would lead to a large rise in interest payments. Faced with this reality, some governments might elect to tighten fiscal policy. An increase in taxes or a decline in government spending would not only create some resources to pay back debt, but it would also reduce aggregate demand, pushing down the neutral rate of interest in the process. Don’t Blame The Stimulus Ironically, all the fiscal relief efforts that governments have carried out over the past few months have probably left them better placed to pay back debt than if no stimulus had been undertaken in the first place. Box 1 illustrates this point with a numerical example, but the intuition for this claim can be seen easily enough. As noted earlier, fiscal stimulus in a depressed economy will raise overall savings. This means that after the pandemic is over, governments will have a larger tax base available to them than they would have had in the absence of any stimulus (although, obviously, the tax base would be even larger if the pandemic had never occurred). The Inflation Solution Chart 10Long-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Very Depressed Still, any decision to tighten fiscal policy down the road is going to be an inherently political one. What if governments do not have the political will to tighten fiscal policy even if the economy begins to overheat? Defaulting on the debt is always an option in that case, but not one that any sensible government would choose given the devastating impact this would have on the financial system and broader economy. Rather, it is conceivable that governments will lean on central banks to keep rates low and let inflation accelerate. While higher inflation will not boost real GDP, it will raise nominal GDP, allowing the ratio of government debt-to-GDP to decline. Investors currently assign very low odds to such an outcome. Long-term market-based inflation expectations remain very depressed (Chart 10). Yet, we think such an eventuality is more plausible than widely believed. As long as inflation does not spiral out of control, central banks are likely to welcome rising prices. A higher inflation rate would make monetary policy more effective by allowing central banks to bring real rates deeper into negative territory whenever the economy falls into recession. Higher inflation would also result in steeper yield curves, reoxygenating commercial banks’ profitability. Profiting From Higher Inflation The path to higher interest rates is paved with lower rates. In order to generate inflation, central banks will need to keep rates at very low levels even once the economy has returned to full employment. Given that unemployment is quite high today, inflation is not an imminent risk. However, it could become a formidable problem in two-to-three years. Investors should maintain below-benchmark levels of duration in fixed-income portfolios and favor inflation-linked securities over nominal bonds. While gold is no longer super cheap, it remains a good hedge against inflation. The yellow metal should also do well if the dollar weakens during the remainder of this year, as we anticipate. As a countercyclical currency, the dollar tends to fall whenever global growth picks up (Chart 11). Chart 11Gold Will Do Well When The Dollar Weakens As Global Growth Picks Up Chart 12Farmland Would Benefit From High Inflation Lastly, land will gain from low interest rates in the near term and higher inflation in the long term. Farmland and suburban land are particularly appealing. The pandemic has made remote working more commonplace. It has also highlighted the potential dangers of living in densely populated cities. Since most suburbs are built on top of land that was previously zoned for agriculture, farmland should benefit from the retreat from urban living, much like it did during the inflationary period of the 1970s (Chart 12). Box 1Saving More By Spending More   Peter Berezin Chief Global Strategist peterb@bcaresearch.com   Footnotes 1  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Risks To The U,” dated May 7, 2020. 2  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “Could The Pandemic Lead To Higher Stock Prices?” dated April 23, 2020. 3  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) can be computed as the sum of consumption (C), investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (X-M). Gross National Product (GNP) is equal to GDP except that the former includes net income from abroad (which is included in the current account balance). Thus, GNP=C+I+G+CA, or GNP-C-G=I+CA. Savings (S) is equal to GNP-C-G. Taken together, the two expressions imply S-I=CA, or S=I+CA. 4  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, ”Is There Really Too Much Government Debt In The World?” dated February 22, 2019. 5  Please see Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report, “A Structural Bear Market In Bonds,” dated February 16, 2018. Global Investment Strategy View Matrix Current MacroQuant Model Scores

Highlights US refiners will raise capacity-utilization rates as demand revives, which will keep crude oil inventories draining through 2H20. Early data indicate COVID-19-induced lockdowns pushed demand for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other products in the US down by a massive 31.9% vs. five-year average levels between March and end-April (Chart of the Week).1 Supply destruction in the US shales, a surge in crude exports, and an import collapse catalyzed by unintended inventory accumulation kept storage from breaching operational capacity outside Cushing, OK, where NYMEX WTI futures deliver. We continue to expect WTI to average ~ $37/bbl this year and ~ $65/bbl next year. Brent will trade ~ $3/bbl higher. Two-way price risk – to the upside and downside – remains high. Feature US refiners did an extraordinary job of balancing their systems in the wake of this demand collapse, which, with impelling alacrity, propelled similarly rapid adjustments in pipeline, storage and shipping markets.  Getting a fix on the actual demand destruction in oil markets wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic is exceedingly difficult. Few regional markets track fundamental data in anything close to a timely manner, except for the US, where the Energy Information Agency (EIA) publishes early estimates of crude and refined-product output, consumption, exports and imports on a weekly basis. Of course, these data are preliminary and will be revised – perhaps substantially – post-publication. However, they are invaluable for getting an early read on the effects of an exogenous shock like the COVID-19 pandemic in an advanced economy. While this experience cannot be translated directly to the rest of the world, the analysis is useful in getting a handle on the order of magnitude of demand destruction globally. These early data flows indicate that, between March and the end of April, US refined-product demand fell a stunning 31.9% vs. its five-year average, as shown in the Chart of the Week. The collapse in US product demand led OECD demand lower by a similar magnitude, which is unsurprising, given the US accounted for ~ 20% of the 100mm b/d or so of products consumed globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. An analysis of these early data indicate US refiners did an extraordinary job of balancing their systems in the wake of this demand collapse, which, with impelling alacrity, propelled similarly rapid adjustments in pipeline, storage and shipping markets. These adjustments now are being reflected in forward curves for WTI and Brent, as market participants discount them. Chart of the WeekUS Refined-Products Demand Collapse Refiner Adjustments Propel Re-Balancing Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully. - Samuel Johnson2 As the extent of the demand destruction became apparent in March, US refiners in PADDs 2 and 3 – the US Midwest and Gulf Coast, respectively, where ~ 75% of US refining capacity is situated – moved quickly to throttle back operations (Chart 2).3 Average utilization rates in both districts fell from a 1Q20 peak of 96.5% in January to 71.2% in April. In volumetric terms, this represented a decline of 4.1mm b/d in US refiner crude inputs (gross), leaving total inputs at 13.4mm b/d by the end of April (Chart 3). Chart 2US Refiners Quickly Ramped Down Chart 3US Refiners Throttle Back Run Rates As Product Demand Collapses Early data indicate pipelines and storage operators let it be known their systems were rapidly filling. This sudden ramping down in operations reduced refiners’ demand for flowing crude oil, leading to a sharp unintended accumulation of crude and product inventory in the US midcontinent and Gulf Coast, and the US East coast (PADD 1), which can receive more than 3mm b/d of refined product on the Colonial Pipeline, a 5,500-mile line running from Houston, TX, to the New York Harbor (Chart 4). With crude and product storage filling, anecdotal reports now confirmed in the early data indicate pipelines and storage operators let it be known their systems were rapidly filling, and that they soon would be denying access to their transportation and holding facilities. Word reached the US shale-oil basins, particularly the Permian and midcontinent fields in Oklahoma and North Dakota, where producers were forced to lay down rigs and choke back crude flows to reduce output (Chart 5).4 Chart 4Demand Collapse Leads To Unintended Inventory Accumulation Chart 5The Word Goes Out To Cut Production, As Pipelines and Storage Fill Additional data will be required to assess how quickly crude production ramped down in the US shales, but it appears the quick-response capability of this production allowed storage operators outside of Cushing, OK, to avoid even coming close to breaching the critical 80% operating capacity threshold of storage operators in these key districts. US Ramps Crude Exports, Slashes Imports Sharply lower refiner demand forced producers and traders to move crude oil out of the US as quickly as possible. In addition to sharply curtailing production, sharply lower refiner demand forced producers and traders to move crude oil out of the US as quickly as possible, which they did (Chart 6). US crude exports are up 26.9% y/y in 1H20, and likely will continue to remain strong. At the same time, US imports of crude oil have fallen 12.6% y/y as refiners continue to manage their own storage levels and system requirements. This will allow floating storage, particularly in the US Gulf, to be drawn down, as refiners return to normal utilization rates (Chart 7). Chart 6US Crude Exports Soar, Imports Collapse ... Chart 7… And Floating Storage Soars, Particularly In The US Gulf The only outlier in all of this was Cushing, OK, where the NYMEX WTI futures contract delivers. Production curtailments in the shales, surging crude exports and sharply lower imports kept storage levels under control, for the most part, as refined-product demand was collapsing in the US. Indeed, EIA data indicate storage levels in PADDs 2 and 3 overall remained below 65% of working-storage capacity throughout March and April. The only outlier in all of this was Cushing, OK, where the NYMEX WTI futures contract delivers. Storage in Cushing breached 80% of capacity in the last two weeks of April before falling back to ~ 70% by mid-May (Chart 8). The proximate cause of this appears to be a disorderly termination of trading in the NYMEX WTI contract for May delivery in Cushing.5 Chart 8Storage In Cushing, OK, Breached 80% Of Capacity US Product Demand Revival It’s still early days, but there are indications of demand reviving in the US. The Apple Mobility Index, which tracks consumer interest in travel, appears to move in line with US refined-product demand (Chart 9). Our expectation remains demand will revive in 2H20 and will increase sharply y/y in 2021, given the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus deployed in the US and globally. This, coupled with the massive supply cuts by OPEC 2.0 and producers outside the coalition, will allow prices to continue to rebound over this period.5 Brent prices likely will average $40/bbl this year and $68/bbl next year. We expect WTI to trade $2 - $4/bbl below Brent. That said, two-way price risk remains extremely high, as we have noted before. Output cuts by OPEC 2.0 and US shale-oil producers could overshoot, and take too much supply off the market as demand is recovering, while demand could once again collapse if a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic emerges following the lifting of lockdowns globally. Chart 9US Interest In Travel Generally Appears To Be Picking Up     Robert P. Ryan Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist rryan@bcaresearch.com Fernando Crupi Research Associate Commodity & Energy Strategy FernandoC@bcaresearch.com   Commodities Round-Up Energy: Overweight WTI prices increased 74% since beginning of May as economies gradually ease lockdown measures and global voluntary and involuntary supply cuts intensify. In the US, total oil rig count fell 73% to an 11-year low of 237 rigs, reflecting weak investment appetite by producers. The IEA expects investment in the oil and gas sector to fall by $400 billion this year, led by a 32% decline in oil and gas investment. In trading markets, speculators are returning to WTI markets in expectations lower supply and reviving demand will drain inventories and move prices significantly up (Chart 10). Fund managers now hold 8-to-1 long contracts in WTI vs. 2-to-1 for Brent. Base Metals: Neutral The LMEX rose 10% since bottoming on March 23. Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel are up by 15%, 6%, 9% and 13%. Iron ore prices dropped ~$2/MT on Tuesday as ore exports from Brazil’s Vale increased by 1.5mm tons, easing concerns about COVID-19 induced supply disruption in the country, according to Fastmarkets MB. Precious Metals: Neutral Record economic policy uncertainty in the US – and globally – keeps safe assets – chiefly gold and the US dollar – well bid (Chart 11). We expect the dollar will weaken as economies reopen and uncertainty wanes. As this unfolds, the risk of a temporary pullback in gold prices remains elevated. Medium to long term, persistent accommodative global monetary policy will continue to support the yellow metal’s upward trend. Ags/Softs:  Underweight According to the USDA, private exporters reported sales of 258k MT of soybeans for delivery to China split between the current and next marketing year, which was supportive of soybean futures prices. A weaker USD also is supporting grains, and rallying corn futures. Wheat was slightly down, as a softer USD positive is being offset by favorable weather conditions in the Black Sea export regions that compete with the US. Chart 10Speculators Are Returning to WTI Chart 11USD Well Bid By High Uncertainty     Footnotes 1     “Product Supplied” is the US EIA’s measure of demand.  2     From The Life of Samuel Johnson LL.D. Vol 3, by James Boswell. 3    PADD stands for Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts. 4    US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette estimates as much as 2.2mm b/d of crude oil production has been shut in because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Please see US oil production shut-ins top 2.2 million b/d during pandemic: DOE chief published by S&P Global Platts May 21, 2020 5    Please see our April 30, 2020, report Stand By For Heavy Rolls: June WTI Could Go Below $0.00/bbl, which examines the anomalous behavior of May-delivery WTI futures traded on the NYMEX last month, which may have contributed to this dramatic deviation from the rest of the US storage market. Markets will, at some point in the near future, be looking for a detailed post-mortem surrounding the events that occurred during the termination of trading of the NYMEX of futures delivering in May at Cushing, when WTI futures traded as low as -$40.32/bbl (i.e., negative $40.32/bbl). Part of the proximate cause of the anomaly appears to be a failure by the CME Group, which operates the NYMEX, and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates US futures exchanges, to ensure an orderly termination of trading in May 2020 WTI futures contracts. See also Column: U.S. commodities watchdog issues blunt warning over oil volatility published by reuters.com May 14, 2020. In future research, we will explore the implications a non-trivial probability of negative prices in the future poses for the oil and gas markets, particularly in re capex and investment generally.   Investment Views and Themes Recommendations Strategic Recommendations Tactical Trades Trade Recommendation Performance In 2020 Q1 Commodity Prices and Plays Reference Table Trades Closed in 2020 Summary of Closed Trades