Economy
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and global economies. However, our…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
Our European Investment strategists looked at the developed markets bond selloff from a European perspective, focusing on Euro area and UK government bonds and currencies. The recent selloff in European bonds is driven primarily by surging US yields,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
The US December jobs report came in stronger than expected. Payrolls rose by 256k vs. a downwardly revised 212k in November, leaving the 3-month moving average at about 170k. The unemployment and underemployment rates decreased to 4.1% (from 4.2%) and 7.5%…
The global economy is subject to numerous cycles displaying reflexivity and feedback loops. One of these is the relationship between financial conditions and growth. Given this relationship, economic strength can plant the seeds of its own demise.Markets are…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.
Our Counterpoint Strategy team sees Japanese real yields as the key risk to global equities. Rising inflation expectations in developed markets, excluding Japan, will keep inflation above target and limit further rate cuts. However, in Japan, inflation…
The post-COVID inflation impacted the most important cross-asset relationship: the stock-bond correlation. Higher inflation expectations pushed yields higher, leading to a correction in bond and stock prices. As price pressures receded, bond yields fell and…
Chinese December CPI and PPI releases show deflationary pressures are not abating. CPI slowed to a 0.1% y/y pace from 0.2% in November, while producer prices fell 2.3%. The Chinese economy has not meaningfully changed course since Beijing unveiled…