Economy
Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction.
November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…
European sentiment data was mixed. The December Ifo Business Climate index for Germany missed estimates and was down 1 point to 84.7 from November. The decrease came from its expectations component, which fell to 84.4 from 87.2. Meanwhile, the December ZEW…
The November Canadian CPI was slightly below estimates, declining to 1.9% y/y from 2.0%, below the BoC’s 2% target but within the 1%-to-3% range. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, were flat at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively after revisions. CPI…
Our European Investment Strategy team published their annual outlook, outlining five key themes that will shape Europe’s economy and markets in 2025. Europe will enter a mild recession in H1 2025, but growth is expected to rebound quickly in the…
December flash PMIs for the core advanced economies showed service sector growth picking up. Manufacturing keeps contracting, and the US continues to outperform its DM peers. The US composite index beat expectations and increased to 56.6 from 54.9.…
Chinese activity indicators were mixed in November, reflecting the dynamic of a resilient supply side coupled with weak demand. Industrial production growth was roughly flat at 5.4% y/y vs. 5.3% in October, while retail sales slowed down to 3.0% y/y from…
The December Empire Manufacturing index missed expectations, slowing to 0.2 from 31.2 in November. Most cyclical components eased, suggesting last month's surge was a post-election blip. The new orders subcomponent decreased, leaving the new…
Our Emerging Markets, China, and Commodities strategy teams published their 2025 joint outlook. Our colleagues remain bullish on the US dollar for now but see rising odds of the Trump administration actively pursuing greenback devaluation. To avoid steep…
China’s November monetary and credit data were disappointing. New yuan loans increased by 580 bln, nearly half the expected amount. Total social financing rose by 2.3 tln instead of the expected 2.7 tln. Finally, M2 growth slowed to 7.1% y/y from 7.5% in…