Economy

Flash PMIs for November extended recent global growth trends. US growth is holding up despite an ailing manufacturing sector, while the rest of the world shows deteriorating weak growth. The US composite beat expectations and accelerated to 55.3 from 54.1…

After fueling the USD rally, price action from the past few weeks suggests Treasury yields might limit US equities’ upside. Following the post-COVID inflation, stocks and bond yields were negatively correlated, reflecting markets' inflation concerns.…

The November Philly Fed manufacturing survey missed expectations and fell to -5.5 vs. 10.3 in October. New orders and shipments softened although they still indicate growth. Most indicators of current activity decreased, while indicators of expectations…

Prior to Nvidia reporting, 76% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations while 61% beat on sales. Nvidia beat earnings expectations, but the magnitude by which guidance beats the most optimistic analyst expectations is decreasing. During our BCA…

UK inflation was hotter than expected in October, rising to 0.6% m/m from being flat in September. Core inflation also ticked up, printing at 3.3% y/y vs. 3.2% a month prior. Services inflation remains elevated at 5.0% y/y.   We do not expect…

Taiwanese export orders surprised positively when a deceleration was expected, printing at 4.9% y/y, up from 4.6% in September. The increase was spread across most categories, with exports of electronic products accelerating to 11.2%. Japanese exports also…

Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed.   At about 4.4%, the…

Housing activity data missed expectations and decreased in October. Building permits came out at 1.416m vs. 1.428m in September, and housing starts decreased from 1.354m in September to 1.311m. Units under construction keep falling. Meanwhile, the November…

Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…

With cross-asset price action mainly revolving around the Trump trade since the election, Tuesday’s headlines surrounding Russia and Ukraine brought investors’ attention back abroad. As predicted by our Geopolitical strategists, Russia responded to the Biden…