Economy

EM/China oil demand is not as strong as some reputable energy sources have indicated. As and when the oil market shifts its attention from supply cutbacks to subdued EM/China oil demand, oil prices will relapse. Renewed drop in commodities prices and poor growth in EM will weigh on EM risk assets going forward.

The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures should continue to filter through the economy. Investors should also curb their enthusiasm in assessing China's demand-side countercyclical initiatives.

The secular stagnation narrative is gaining traction amongst the FOMC. Expect further downward revisions to longer run FOMC interest rates forecasts, toward levels already discounted in the Treasury curve.

We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.

The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.

The Fed has reason to delay the next rate hike until at least September, even if volatility subsides after the June 23 Brexit vote.

The "reflation trade" is breaking down. Brexit risk is partly at fault; the bigger issue is the lack of a global "spender of last resort." Globally, savings must equal investment. The problem is that desired savings are rising and desired investment is falling. Policy is increasingly reflecting this reality: Fiscal austerity is yielding to stimulus, the obsession with fighting inflation replaced with talk of helicopter money/other radical solutions. Bond yields are likely to stay depressed for the next two years, but could then begin to rise much more than current market expectations. We are closing our short EUR/JPY trade.

Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June 23.

The exponential rise in banks' non-standard credit assets has occurred in spite of the government's efforts to contain and regulate it. The government does not have full control over shadow banking and non-large banks. These have become a large part of the credit system. Hence, the assumption that the central government in Beijing can sustain any rate of credit growth it desires is overly simplistic. Short small bank stocks in China.