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Emerging Markets

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Trump Versus Macro

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
From Which Chinese PMI Should Investors Take Their Cue?
Chinese manufacturing PMIs remained mostly stable in June. The Caixin PMI ticked 0.1 point higher to 51.8 while the NBS measure remained at 49.5. Both leading gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity are thus sending seemingly conflicting signals, with one…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
South Africa: Time To Upgrade
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended upgrading South African assets. The team argued that the new national unity government has an opportunity to ease the restrictive policies and implement structural reforms. The…
Daily Insights
Mexico: Short Vs. Long-Term Strategy
Mexico has gone from investor darling to massive underperformer within the EM space in the past month. In the eyes of our Emerging Markets Strategy team, the near-term outlook for Mexican risk assets remains poor in absolute terms, but the long-term view is…
Daily Insights
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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
India: Avoid Stocks, Buy Bonds
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will largely continue the structural…
Daily Insights
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China’s Credit Impulse Loses Its Mojo

The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Is Emerging Market Debt Still As Cyclical As It Was In The Past?
Emerging market debt is typically thought of as a cyclical asset. When risk assets sell off and the dollar rises, this asset class has historically suffered. However, there are some signs that the risk-on nature of EM debt has begun to change. In a recent…
Daily Insights
Central Bank Purchases: A Tailwind For Gold
Historically, there has been a tight inverse relationship between the price of gold and US real rates. Elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the yellow metal relatively less attractive for investors. Yet this…
Daily Insights

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