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Emerging Markets

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A Whiff Of A Late Cycle?

In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Rangebound Euro

EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Chinese Export Growth Disappoints In March
Chinese trade and credit data delivered a negative surprise for March. On the trade front, the 7.5% y/y drop in exports came in below expectations of a 1.9% y/y decline following four consecutive months of growth. While the jump in the New Export Orders…
Daily Insights
Carry Trades Point To A Global Growth Recovery
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry trades distribute liquidity…
Daily Insights
EM Small Caps Bucking the Trend
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
Daily Insights
UAE Equities: Fading Real Estate Tailwind
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, peaking property prices will remove the sole tailwind behind the Emirati Stock Market. Over the past couple of years, the Emirati stock market has been running on a single engine: surging…
Daily Insights
Colombia: Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Public Finances, And Political Uncertainty Warrant Underweight
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service argues that Colombia has fallen from grace in terms of its healthy macroeconomic fundamentals, business-friendly government policies, and conservative fiscal stances. Since the election of President Gustavo…
Daily Insights
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What Will Spoil The Party?

Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Copper Poised For Breakout

Copper markets are fast approaching a price breakout, as Chinese smelters scramble to find ore to meet increasing refined-copper demand in the wake of a global manufacturing rebound. We are holding fast to our expectation of $4.50/lb (COMEX) this year. We remain long the XME ETF to retain exposure to copper miners and refiners, and the COMT ETF to retain exposure to commodity flat price and the copper backwardation we expect.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
China’s Infrastructure Investment Will Slow In 2024
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the growth rate of China’s infrastructure investment will likely slow from a nominal 9% last year to about 6% this year. Funding constraints will limit local government capability to invest in…
Daily Insights

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