Emerging Markets
The Chinese yuan slide sharply against the US dollar on Friday, breaching the 7.2 level. The weakness comes after the PBOC loosened its hold on the currency by setting a weaker-than-anticipated daily fixing. The move underscores that Chinese authorities…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, although certain Chinese industries and individual EM economies are growing briskly, overall EM growth will remain tepid, with risks skewed to the downside. The fiscal stimulus announced during…
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property market indicators continue to paint a grim…
Deflation remains prevalent in the Chinese economy. The longer authorities delay a big bang-type stimulus, the more entrenched deflation will become. Hence, a cyclical upswing in Chinese stocks is unlikely, although there might be short-term rebounds.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.5% to 45%. Banks’ lending rate has…
Chinese economic data for the first two months of the year were mixed. On the one hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in above consensus estimates, accelerating to 7.0% y/y (vs. expectations of 5.2% y/y) and 4.2% y/y (vs.…
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese stocks is unlikely to persist over a cyclical…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…