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Emerging Markets

Israel-Iran: The Tipping Point

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

Geopolitical Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy by Matt Gertken
Israel-Iran Tensions Enter A Dangerous Phase
The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating, raising the odds of a major oil supply shock and reinforcing the case for cash, US equity overweight, and tactical energy exposure. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds
BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or new retaliatory tariffs,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US-China Trade De-Escalation Won’t Drive New Highs
The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Case For EM Domestic Bonds
BCA’s EM strategists argue that a global macro shift is underway: A weaker US dollar will drive a retrenchment in US domestic demand and imports. Unlike previous cycles, dollar depreciation will be deflationary for the rest of the world rather than…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Brazil: Peaking Inflation Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts
The May Brazilian CPI suggests that price pressures may have reached a peak, but do not expect immediate monetary easing to support fixed income markets. Headline CPI slowed to 5.3% y/y from 5.5% April, but core CPI remained flat at 6.1%.  Despite…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
The Case For EM Domestic Bonds

Unlike in past episodes, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world. In this context, EM local currency bonds offer a superior risk-reward profile. Stay long domestic bonds in select EM countries.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Wait For May Employment Data

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
MacroQuant Model Update: The Trump Factor

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
MacroQuant Model Update: The Trump Factor

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li

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