Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Emerging Markets

Does The RMB Rally Have Legs?
The Chinese Renminbi recently made a sharp U-turn. Year-to-date weakness has given way to a 4.9% appreciation versus the USD since the end of October. This rally occurred against the backdrop of broad-based US dollar depreciation. Global investors cheered the…
Daily Insights
Political Uncertainty Hits The Rand
Over the past week, the South African rand was a key underperformer in the currency space. Despite broad-based dollar weakness, USD/ZAR ended the weak 2.4% higher. Heightened domestic political uncertainty triggered the South African currency’s…
Daily Insights
Fade The Rally In EM Equities and Bonds
Emerging Markets equities and bonds have staged an impressive rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets index and the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Composite Total Return index advanced by 15% and 7%, respectively, in November in US dollar terms. This performance…
Daily Insights
Chinese Equities: Short Banks / Long Consumer Staples And Autos
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service recommends a new relative equity trade: short Chinese bank stocks / long Chinese consumer staples and auto stocks. Authorities are once again using banks to finance stimulus – in this case, to fund property…
Daily Insights
China's Reopening: Beware Of Zigzags And Roundabouts

Is China completely abandoning its dynamic zero-COVID policy? When will the economy start recovering? What are the implications for Chinese stocks and China-related assets?
Have authorities provided enough financing to property developers? Will developers be able to repay these loans and, if not, who would bear the cost of potential defaults?
What should be the strategy for Chinese onshore rates and the RMB?

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The Only Thing Missing Is An Asteroid: Unprecedented Uncertainty In Commodities

We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl, with an upside bias, anticipating a successful – if chaotic – re-opening in China beginning in 1Q23. Our expectations for copper trading above $4.00/lb in 1Q23 and above $4.50/lb in 2H23 stand.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Ashwin Shyam
Monthly Portfolio Update: A Year Of Two Halves

Recession is not yet fully priced in, so markets have further to fall next year. But watch for a buying opportunity in the second half.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Putin’s Re-Election 2024
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Russia’s presidential election of March 2024 will put pressure on Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire before that time. Putin faces his fifth presidential election on March 17, 2024.…
Daily Insights
EM Stocks Face Grim Economic Backdrop
Emerging Market equities recently failed to break below their 24-year moving average that previously served as a key technical support level. Instead, they have rallied alongside DM stocks over the past month. Indeed, conditions have become oversold for EM…
Daily Insights
Xi's Policy Pivot (GeoRisk Update)

The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics