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Equities

Will Global Ex-US Stocks Continue Outperforming?
Since early November, US equities have been underperforming their global peers in USD terms. To some extent, this development reflects recent dollar weakness. However, there are some fundamental reasons for the outperformance of ex-US stocks. While most US…
Daily Insights
The Beveridge Curve Will Determine Whether The US Goes Into Recession
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ‘Beveridge Curve’ is the most important chart of 2023. The chart plots the tight inverse relationship between job vacancies and unemployment. It is important because many economists argue that the very…
Daily Insights
The Most Important Chart Of 2023, Updated

The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus: we reveal the most important chart for Europe and the most important chart for China in early 2023.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Key Macro Questions

Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits? Are global equities pricing in enough bad news/profit contraction?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
China’s Reopening Will Boost Global Tourism
The main beneficiary from China’s exit from the zero-Covid policy will be consumer spending—particularly on services. Meanwhile, given that the impact on the industrial sector will be much more muted, it will not lead to a significant increase in Chinese…
Daily Insights
US Small Caps: Cheap But Exposed
The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index’s continued deterioration underscores frail economic conditions in the US. In particular, December’s 2.1-point decrease reflects a decline in the share of business owners that expect an improvement in business…
Daily Insights
India: Relative De-Rating Ahead
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, downshifting profit growth expectations and rising interest rates herald a meaningful derating of Indian equities in both absolute terms and relative to their EM peers. In terms of relative…
Daily Insights
US High-Quality Strategy: USHQ Outperforms In Down Month

The BCA Score's safety tilt pays off in a turbulent year. USHQ outperformed the SPY in December and USHQ SMID performed inline with its MSCI US SMID Cap benchmark.

Equity Analyzer by Lucas Laskey
Sector Chartbook

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Rays Of Light

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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