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Equities

Watch This Indicator For A -20 Percent Market Slump

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Ceiling For US Equities?
The S&P 500 has struggled to re-test all-time highs since the US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed the 4.50% mark. Stocks have moved sideways since December, and January’s hot CPI print confirmed that equities remain averse to higher yields. During…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Taking Stock Of Stock Market Technicals
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Melanie Kermadjian, from our Global Investment Strategy team.  The S&P 500 has been in a bull market for nearly five years and is currently up 2.5% YTD. A lot has been thrown at the US stock market so far this…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See Increased Risks Of Stagflation
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year and 5-10 year inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weekly Screeners: All To Do About Tariffs

This week, our three screeners focus on providing equity insights based on the impact of tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty in general, helping clients identify stocks exposed to these shocks.   

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
Is Equity Volatility Too Low, Or Too High?
Despite disruptive headlines, equity market volatility remains contained. The S&P 500 has been in a tight range since the last VIX spike, and news of a disruptive, cheaper AI technology has not sustainably brought down US tech stocks. Both implied and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Continued Low Growth
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Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ISM Services PMI Reassures Markets On Inflation
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US High-Quality Strategy: Rising Market Risk Favors USHQ

The US High-Quality (USHQ) portfolio slightly outperformed in January, returning 3.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 2.9%. That said, we think the USHQ portfolio will have a solid run through the first half of 2025, benefitting from rising market risk on the back of President Trump’s tariff agenda. USHQ’s underlying Quality and Safety Score factor tilts will be increasingly favored as market uncertainty grows.  

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell, Shi Li
The Fed And Tariffs
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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