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Equities

Monthly TAA Report: Thin Is Back In! How Budgets, Growth, And Valuations Will Be Leaner Than Expected In 2025

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Manuel Correa
A Year-End Review Of Our Open Positions

This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Today's Buyout Reality - From Large To Lower Middle Market
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists have delved into the North American Buyouts market, concluding that the investment playbook needs rewriting. The performance of Middle Market Buyouts has been exceptional, leading many investors to stick…
Daily Insights
France: Too Early To Buy The Dip
Investors focused on the flurry of cabinet nominations in the aftermath of the US election, but the US does not have a monopoly on political drama. France is going through turmoil of its own. This summer’s snap election left France’s government weakened,…
Daily Insights
US: Disinflation Not At Risk For Now, Spending Slows Down
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Daily Insights
On Trump And Tariff Threats
President-elect Trump jolted markets Monday night by declaring that tariffs will be implemented on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. The US dollar strengthened while stocks fell, as did Treasury yields. Equities, however, recovered on Tuesday, as a…
Daily Insights
BCA’s 2025 Outlook: Walking A Tightrope
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
Daily Insights
The Message From Major US Retailers
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings calls as pandemic-era savings fade, and…
Daily Insights
On Nvidia And The Earnings Season
Prior to Nvidia reporting, 76% of S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations while 61% beat on sales. Nvidia beat earnings expectations, but the magnitude by which guidance beats the most optimistic analyst expectations is decreasing. During our BCA…
Daily Insights
Green And Clean: Is Bad News Already Priced In?
Our US Equity strategists investigated the underperformance of the Green and Clean (G&C) investment theme, in the context of an incoming US administration expected to be less friendly towards green initiatives.  The G&C investment theme has…
Daily Insights

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