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Equities

President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, rebalance the justice system, streamline government, protect…

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

Two main market events defined 2024, highlighting how assets will react to economic data on the tactical horizon. The August 2024 selloff marked a positive shift in the stock-bond yield correlation, as higher odds of a “hard landing” were priced in, after…
Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team believes the US economy is not as strong as commonly believed, and that equity valuations offer little buffer given the risk of incoming macro shocks. The US economy is more fragile than it appears, with risks…
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
China’s monetary and credit data was relatively strong. New yuan loans increased more than expected, as did aggregate financing. M2 met estimates at 7.3% y/y. As was the case for trade in December, seasonality plays a big role in China around the…

In this first presentation of 2025, we start with an overview of the 2025 outlook webcast polls, and a brief post-mortem of the 2024 market performance. Then, we shift gears and examine what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and its implications for equities. We also review market technicals and positioning and conclude with a list of trades to prepare our portfolio for continued moves in yields.

To kick start our new research agenda at Equity Analyzer, we welcome you to our weekly screener report. Each week we will deliver three screeners highlighting stocks exposed to various macro and investment views and themes, that have either been suggested by various BCA strategies, such as the Global Investment Strategy, or are based on research by the Equity Analyzer team. In our first installment, we take a look at US Tech stocks, equity sentiment, and quality "bubble" stocks.

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? 

The US December jobs report came in stronger than expected. Payrolls rose by 256k vs. a downwardly revised 212k in November, leaving the 3-month moving average at about 170k. The unemployment and underemployment rates decreased to 4.1% (from 4.2%) and 7.5%…