Euro Area
This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.
The Sentix Investor Confidence index unexpectedly improved in October from -15.4 to -13.8. A notable improvement in Expectations (from -8.0 to -3.8) drove the overall index higher, while the Current Situation subcomponent declined for a fourth consecutive…
German factory orders contracted by a larger-than-anticipated 5.8% m/m (3.9% y/y) in August, from a 3.9% expansion (4.6% y/y). Domestically, Germany is constitutionally bound to maintain a balanced budget. The emergency pandemic funds disbursed in 2020 are…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher, from 101.6 to 105.0. …
The JPM Global manufacturing PMI declined at an accelerating pace in September (49.6 to 48.8). Moreover, international trade flows deteriorated notably with the new export orders component falling from 48.4 to 47.5. A sector breakdown underscores broad-based…
Preliminary estimates suggest that Eurozone headline and core CPI inflation decelerated from 2.2% to 1.8% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.7%, respectively, in September. The inflation data from individual Euro Area countries earlier last week had already prompted…
The Eurozone’s Bright Spots
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France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…
Preliminary estimates suggest that activity continued to slow across DM economies in September. Manufacturing PMIs contracted at a faster pace in the US, Eurozone, Germany, France and Australia, and grew at a slower pace in the UK. Services PMIs continued…