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Euro Area

The US Remains Economically More Resilient Than Its Peers
The flash PMI estimates from S&P Global delivered a mixed message about economic conditions across DM economies in October. The Eurozone composite index unexpectedly fell from 47.2 to a nearly three-year low of 46.5 on the back of surprise declines in…
Daily Insights
Restrictive Policy Weighs On Eurozone Credit Sector
Results of the ECB's Q3 Bank Lending Survey indicate that the impact of tight monetary policy is weighing down on lending conditions and loan demand in the Euro Area. In terms of credit standards, the survey results reveal that the broad-based tightening…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Sentiment: A Self-Defeating Upswing?
The European Commission's preliminary release for Consumer Confidence painted a murky picture for consumer sentiment on Monday. The headline print of -17.9 was largely unchanged from the previous month's print of -17.8, but beat expectations of -18.3.…
Daily Insights
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Eurozone: Recession Postponed, Not Cancelled

Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
New Record Decline In German Producer Prices
German producer prices declined by a new record 14.7% y/y in September, broadly in line with expectations of -14.1% y/y and a steeper pace of contraction than August's -12.6% y/y. Meanwhile, the monthly rate of change returned to contraction (-0.2% m/m)…
Daily Insights
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q3/2023 Review & Q4 Outlook: How To Win During "Higher For Longer"

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).

Global Fixed Income Strategy
ZEW: Better Days Ahead?
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase in the share of respondents…
Daily Insights
The Euro's Correction Is Now Advanced
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro's correction is now advanced. During the first week of the month, EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.045. Previously, the team argued it would buy EUR/USD below 1.04. A dip to this…
Daily Insights
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Market Update

Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Global Manufacturing Remains A Concern For European Equities
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing sector. Several leading indicators…
Daily Insights

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