Euro Area

Natural gas storage levels in the US and EU are sufficient to balance flowing supply and demand this winter, assuming normal weather. China continues to invest in domestic production, and to diversify supply sources to compensate for a lack of storage. Longer-term Qatari contracts are giving higher weight to natgas trading hub prices. We remain long the XOP ETF to retain exposure to fossil-fuel producers supplying DM and EM economies with natgas beyond the 2050 net-zero-emissions goals advanced by the IEA.

2 years ago

Essentials

Consumption Remains A Drag In The Eurozone

As expected, Euro Area retail sales continued to decline on both a month-over-month and a year-over-year basis in September. The 0.3% m/m drop is slightly below expectations of -0.2% m/m while the 2.9% y/y decline is not as bad as consensus estimates of -3.1%…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Europe’s Disinflation Continues

The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?

2 years ago

Essentials

The Message From The FX G10 Attractiveness Model

The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of economic and financial…

2 years ago

Essentials

EUR/USD: Potential For Some Near-Term Upside

The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while the monthly rate of change eased to…

2 years ago

Essentials

Eurozone Data Raises Odds Hiking Cycle Is Over

Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of change eased from 4.3% y/y to…

2 years ago

Essentials

Will US Stocks Retain Their YTD Lead?

In a recent Insight we highlighted that the S&P 500's year-to-date rally is narrow in breadth and that the equal weighted index has erased all its year-to-date gains. This is also true in the case of the Euro Area where the MSCI price index is still up by…

2 years ago

Essentials

Structural Bear Market For European Bonds

The European money market curve anticipates three rate cuts by October 2024. This pricing is appropriate considering the outlook for European growth next year. BCA’s Europe strategist expect a recession in the second half of the year, which will force the ECB…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Uncanny Déjà Vu

What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past.

2 years ago

Essentials

Has The ECB Reached The Pinnacle?

As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…

2 years ago

Euro Area

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