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Euro Area

How Much Higher For German Yields?
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to move meaningfully higher in the…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Earnings Follow Nominal Growth
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the earnings outlook of Eurozone equities will continue to deteriorate over the coming two quarters despite the improvement in real economic activity. Earnings and revenue growth are…
Daily Insights
The Problem With European Earnings

European real GDP growth is stabilizing, so why would European equities continue to trade sideways for the remainder of the year? The answer lies with nominal growth and its impact on earnings.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Not Immaculate (GeoRisk Update)

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Bullish Implications For Greek 10-Year Government Bond Spreads
Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece is also faring better on the…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Sentix: Green Shoots?
The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone sent a positive signal on Monday. It unexpectedly increased from -22.5 to -18.9 in August, surprising expectations of a further deterioration to -24.5. This marks the index’s first increase in four months. A…
Daily Insights
Taking Stock

August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Eurozone Growth Improves, Core Inflation Sticky
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
Daily Insights
Data Dependent

The ECB’s tone has changed decisively. Intransigent forward guidance is gone; data dependency is in. What does this transition mean for the path of European interest rates and the euro?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Month-In-Review: The Dollar, The Economy, And Central Banks

The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US growth is boosting the rest of the world.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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