Europe
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also played a role. Most notably, the…
Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.
On Wednesday, the European Commission announced it would impose tariffs ranging between 17% and 38% on imports of Chinese EVs starting next month. These duties will be applied on top of existing 10% across-the-board tariffs on all Chinese EV imports, and…
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains elevated. The 3-month measure of…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month highs of 10 and -9, respectively.…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European parliamentary election was not an earthquake. It saw an improvement in right-leaning political groups and a deterioration in both centrist and left-leaning groups, as expected. …
Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to cooperate on national defense, economic security, and energy security.
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden where a large share of households…
The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?