Europe
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4 – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…
The British pound is the best performing G10 currency so far this year, gaining 0.7% vis-à-vis the US dollar. The outperformance of sterling over the past month coincides with an increase in Citigroup’s UK economic surprise index, both on an absolute basis as…
In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, last week’s ECB meeting confirmed their long-held view that the most likely date for the first ECB rate cut would be June. The ECB continues to acknowledge that the European economy is soft…
As we discussed in a recent Insight, the krone is the top pick for our Foreign Exchange Strategy team. The krone upgrade is one of the most significant changes in our colleagues’ attractiveness ranking model. Norway has the perfect storm of sticky inflation,…
BCA’s European Investment Strategy team continues to expect the German economy to trail that of the rest of Europe. Since 2020, Germany has fallen behind, with its real GDP lagging that of the broader Eurozone by 5%. The contribution of consumption to GDP…
Data out of Norway is becoming increasingly positive, and there is a strong investment case to be made for the country, with bullish implications for both equities and the currency: Retail sales remain robust and are catching up to the improvement we…
The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally have legs? On a relative basis,…