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Europe

Germany's IFO Serves As A Warning
Germany’s IFO survey is sending a warning. The Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell for the second month in a row in January. Importantly, increased pessimism about the current situation and the outlook are driving this deterioration in sentiment among…
Daily Insights
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Five Black Swans For 2024

Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Higher Rates Continue To Weigh On Eurozone Loan Demand
Results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey suggest that the tight monetary policy stance is still weighing on the Eurozone economy.  Banks tightened credit standards for businesses and consumers further in Q4 2023, contributing to the substantial…
Daily Insights
ECB June Rate Cut: Steeper Yield Curve Ahead
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the rate cuts priced in the €STR curve.…
Daily Insights
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ECB June Rate Cut: Two Implications

The ECB will begin cutting rates in June, what does this start date imply for the yield curve and European cyclicals?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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These Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing

Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowly turning more defensive.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
A BoE Pivot Requires Lower UK Inflation
The British pound was the best performing G10 currency on Wednesday as UK gilts sold off meaningfully with the 10-year yield ending the day nearly 19 basis points higher. An unexpected acceleration in CPI inflation in December prompted the move. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Rate Cut Expectations Continue To Bolster German Investor Morale
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
Daily Insights
European Stocks Are Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should not chase European equities higher from current levels. The soft-landing narrative has captured the minds of investors. The expectations of more disinflation and meaningful…
Daily Insights
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Too Much Goldilocks

The soft-landing narrative has won, but is too much of a good thing now expected by investors?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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