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Europe

UK Disinflation Trend And Labor Softening Boosts Bullish Gilts Case
UK disinflation and labor market softening support our overweight in Gilts and short GBP trade. UK CPI came in slightly hotter than expected in May, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y (vs. 3.5% in April) and core CPI meeting expectations at 3.5%, down from…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Swiss Illusion: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Momentum
1 The Swiss Illusion: Strong Fundamentals, Weak Momentum …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ZEW Improves, But Eurozone Outlook Still Vulnerable
ZEW expectations jumped in May, but underlying macro fragility supports a cautious stance on eurozone assets. The ZEW expectations index for the euro area rose to 35.3 from 11.6, with Germany also beating expectations. The current situation component improved…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A New Risk For The Euro
Short term euro upside is limited despite a structural bull case, as fragile growth, easing ECB policy, and geopolitical risks cap further gains. EUR/USD broke above structural resistance in April amid optimism over German stimulus and US political…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Technical Note On The Dollar

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Weekly Screeners: I-Robot; European Quality & Technical; Hong Kong Equities

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell, Henry Tang
Weekly Screeners: Bullion Bull (Rages On); European Banks; US Recession (Still Not Imminent)

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
ECB: A Deceleration, Not A Pivot
The ECB’s expected rate cut to 2% marks a slower easing phase, capping Bund yields. The shift to a quarterly pace of cuts, barring surprises, confirms a more gradual approach despite ongoing disinflation and weak growth. Staff projections downgraded inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB Meeting Post-Mortem: A Deceleration, Not A Pivot

The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Cooling Inflation Breeze Strengthens European Bond Case
Cooler May inflation in the Eurozone and Switzerland reinforces the case for an ECB rate cut and supports our defensive positioning across European rates and FX. Headline Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% y/y from 2.2%, with core down to 2.3% from 2.7%. Services…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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