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Europe

Eurozone Sentiment Firms
Preliminary estimates indicate that Eurozone consumer confidence improved in January. The European Commission measure ticked up to -20.9 from -22, corroborating several other indicators pointing to recovering sentiment among businesses and investors.   …
Daily Insights
Europe’s Ups And Downs

European assets have enjoyed a stunning outperformance since October 2022. Can these strong returns last in 2023?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Contract In December
The volume of retail sales in the UK unexpectedly declined by 1.0% m/m (5.8% y/y) in December, disappointing expectations it would rebound following November’s 0.5% m/m contraction. Lower sales of cosmetics, sports equipment, toys, watches & jewelry, and…
Daily Insights
Hawkish ECB Minutes Underscore Risk Of Policy Mistake
The tone of the minutes from the ECB’s December meeting was decidedly hawkish. The release emphasized that Governing Council members agree that the tightening cycle is far from over given their view that risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the…
Daily Insights
Oil Prices Set To Rally

China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil consumption by close to 2mm and 1.7mm b/d in 2023 and 2024. We lowered our Brent forecast slightly for this year to $110/bbl, and expect 2024 prices to average $115/bbl. WTI will trade $4-$6/bbl lower.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
Eurozone Morale Improves Further In January
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in January. Most notably, the expectations subindices for both regions rebounded sharply to positive territory, from -23.6 to 16.7 in the…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Big Risk
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the biggest threat hanging over European markets is the increasingly hawkish tone displayed by the ECB. The ECB is very worried about inflation, especially with core CPI bucking the trend…
Daily Insights
Tug-Of-War

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Europe: Recession Averted?
German and UK GDP releases provided a better-than-anticipated assessment of recent economic conditions in Europe. In Germany, GDP growth slowed from 2.6% in 2021 to 1.9% in 2022, beating estimates of 1.8%. In particular, the 4.6% increase in consumption…
Daily Insights
The Housing Downturn: Could This Time Be Different?

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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