Financial Markets
Shift to a small vs. large cap bias as a stealth way to play the overall equity market overshoot. The oversold bounce in banks is not worth chasing, and buy dips in medical equipment stocks.
U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag petro currencies. The BoJ will act, but timing is uncertain. Keep a negative bias toward the yen. CAD/NOK has more downside.
More aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will be necessary to resuscitate the Japanese economy. While the BoJ's forthcoming review is likely to endorse the current policy stance, there is a good chance that Kuroda will open the door to more radical measures. These measures will push down the yen, giving Japanese stocks a lift in the process. Sentiment on the U.K. economy has gotten too bearish. We are closing our short GBP/SEK trade and going long GBP/JPY.
The deepening interconnectedness of the "global eco-system" brought front-and-center by NY Fed President Dudley will keep inflation at the consumer level synchronized in the world's largest economies. The importance of global variables in the evolution of local inflation rates will remain elevated.
The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.
With 88 days to go until the U.S. presidential election our client meetings are starting to steer towards "all Trump, all the time." In this report we present evidence that Trump's electability is correlated with the chief global safe haven, the 10-year Treasury. Markets may be overreacting, however. Trump has a chance, but Clinton is the clear favorite. We also bust five myths about China's political system, in a continuation of our coverage of rising geopolitical risks in East Asia.
The tailwind of better-than-expected global growth and highly supportive monetary policy has the potential to push global spread product into overshoot territory.
The combination of strengthening global growth and more accommodative monetary policy means that spread product can continue to outperform in the coming months. Despite lingering concerns about credit quality in the corporate sector, we recommend moderately increasing exposure to high-quality spread product.
Last week's blowout jobs report had the beautiful combination of strong growth and flat/rising underemployment rates. This supports our expectation of a Fed hike in December rather than one in September.Accelerating growth when the economy is approaching full employment suggests that the equity bull market is not over, though we are entering a more volatile phase.
A two-speed economy requires selective portfolio construction, favoring consumer-oriented and mainly non-cyclical industries. Put communications equipment on the high-conviction overweight list, and stay clear of refiners.