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Financial Markets

US Equities: A Breakout Or A Fakeout?
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the diminishing pace of disinflation in the US could pose a threat to US share prices in the near term. In the medium term, the key risk to US share prices is shrinking corporate profits.  …
Daily Insights
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Decoupling And A Litmus Test

Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the US dollar strength will be weakness in EM risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Cyclicals Versus Defensives Ahead Of The First Rate Cut
In a recent Insight we looked at the performance of equities following the start of monetary easing cycles. Specifically, we looked at the historical performance of US cyclical sectors versus defensive sectors at various points in time after the Fed’s first…
Daily Insights
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How Love Stories End: US Tech And Chinese Housing

Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Pessimism Dominates Among US Small Business Owners
We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of the January NFIB survey…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks Are Richly Valued
Indian economic data releases delivered a positive signal on Monday. CPI inflation slowed from 5.7% y/y to 5.1% y/y in January – within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2-6% target range. Meanwhile, industrial production growth accelerated from 2.4% y/y to…
Daily Insights
A Durable Improvement In CEO Confidence?
Results of the US Conference Board’s latest quarterly survey show an improvement in sentiment among business leaders. The CEO Confidence measure rose above 50 for the first time in two years – indicating that optimists now outnumber pessimists. CEOs are more…
Daily Insights
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Sector Positioning Scorecard

We created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes while taking into consideration revisions to expected earnings growth and valuations in a historical context. Our total sector selection scorecard suggests overweighting defensives such as Utilities, and Consumer Staples, and underweighting cyclicals such as Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials. Considering this analysis, we have adjusted our sector positioning accordingly.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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Germany’s Travails Continue
Special Report

The German economy has lagged that of Europe. This trend will continue, but does it mean German equities will underperform further?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Can The US Dollar Rally When The Fed Cuts Rates?
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be realized. Rising interest rates will…
Daily Insights

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