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Financial Markets

MacroQuant Model Update: The Trump Factor

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
Messages From Commodity Curves
Oil, copper, and gold futures curves have experienced abnormal changes in the past few months, but a bearish global outlook will steepen contango structures across all three. Oil’s curve structure has flipped from backwardation (higher short-term than…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Gold Will Continue Outperforming Oil
The gold-to-oil price ratio seems tactically overextended, but global macro drivers suggest it will rise further.   The gold bull run is still relatively young and not yet stretched compared to rallies from the past 50 years. Importantly, ongoing…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
All Good Things Must Come To An End, However Small
The outperformance of European small caps is coming to an end. Our Chart Of The Week comes from our European Investment Strategy team.The team identifies several headwinds for small caps in Europe in the near term. Small caps’ performance is primarily…
Daily Insights by Jeremie Peloso
Is The Uranium Bull Market Ready To Resume Climbing The Wall Of Doubt?
Uranium spot prices may have found a floor after falling to $64/lb from a $107/lb peak in February last year. This drawdown has been unexpected considering the strength of the underlying supply-demand fundamentals for uranium. The momentum remains…
Daily Insights by Jeremie Peloso
The Shifting Stock/Bond Correlation

Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Eurozone Sentiment Rebounds, But Fundamentals Still Fragile
The rebound in Eurozone sentiment is encouraging but headwinds persist, justifying a defensive stance on European assets. The May ZEW expectations index jumped to 11.6 from -18.5 in the Eurozone, with Germany’s gauge also rising to beat estimates. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Small Businesses Freeze Hiring As Uncertainty Lingers
Small business sentiment remains recessionary, supporting our defensive asset allocation stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell less than expected to 95.8, reinforcing the cratering in soft data witnessed since the election with policy…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Curve Steepener Is The Trade For 2025

A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
A Softcore Downturn


It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too sanguine about the risk of a US recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Miroslav Aradski

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