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Fixed Income

Australia And The Global Disinflation Battle
There have been big downside surprises to inflation over the last few weeks. Today, the May monthly print of Australian inflation (covers 67% of all items), came in at 5.6%, versus 6.8% the previous month. This followed a downside surprise to Canadian…
Daily Insights
Indonesia: A Passing Opportunity
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended an underweight stance for Indonesian equities in EM portfolios. The team is also bearish on the rupiah. An unprecedented trade surplus recently gave Indonesia a rare opportunity to…
Daily Insights
Interpreting The Message From Inverted Yield Curves
Has the yield curve lost its ability to “predict” recessions? The widely-followed 2-year/10-year US Treasury curve now sits at -100bps, but it has been inverted since April 2022. Investors have seemingly been on “recession watch” ever since, even though the…
Daily Insights
The Inflation Expectations Time-Bomb

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, while Japanese equities are a reversal candidate.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Canadian Inflation: Slowing, But Not Enough To Calm The BoC
Canadian inflation slowed in May, slowing to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in April. This matched market expectations, with the monthly increase of 0.4% (versus 0.7% in April), slightly lower than the 0.5% consensus forecast. The year-over-year…
Daily Insights
Credit Cycle Checkup

This week’s Special Report updates our US default rate forecast and considers whether corporate bond spreads offer value given the trend in credit fundamentals. We also consider the relative value proposition between investment grade and high-yield credit and between European and US corporate bonds.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Turkey: Time To Go In?

Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The BoE Returns To Outsized Rate Hikes
The Bank of England surprised markets with a larger-than-anticipated 50bps rate hike on Thursday, raising its policy rate to 5% versus expectations of 4.75%. Seven of the nine MPC members voted in favor of the rate increase. In particular, the rate hike is…
Daily Insights
Bond Market Positioning Is Very Bullish
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors maintain above-benchmark portfolio duration. However, the team is monitoring bond positioning as a potential catalyst that could push yields higher. JP Morgan’s Treasury Investor Sentiment Survey…
Daily Insights
Watch Interest Rates, Not The Balance Sheet
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, when the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies are sending opposite signals, listen to interest rates. There seems to be some worry among investors that the coming increase in Treasury cash…
Daily Insights

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