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Fixed Income

A Will E. Coyote Moment For Markets?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jonathan LaBerge, Chief Strategist for our Special Reports Unit. Jonathan asks whether investors should be encouraged by the fact stocks are shrugging off US tariffs. The answer is no, because the same thing happened in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US: Hot PPI Points To Cooler PCE
The January US Producer Price Index came in slightly hotter than estimates, but decelerated to 0.4% m/m (3.5% y/y) from an upwardly-revised 0.5% in December. Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, was also stronger than expected, but also…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Watch This Indicator For A -20 Percent Market Slump

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Ceiling For US Equities?
The S&P 500 has struggled to re-test all-time highs since the US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed the 4.50% mark. Stocks have moved sideways since December, and January’s hot CPI print confirmed that equities remain averse to higher yields. During…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Bonds And The Fiscal Policy Risk

Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Small Business Post-Election Euphoria Dissipates
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased more than expected to 102.8 from 105.1. After reaching near all-time highs in the wake of the election, expectations pulled back somewhat as uncertainty took center stage.  The decline was…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumers See Increased Risks Of Stagflation
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year and 5-10 year inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Jobs Report Shows Resilient Labor Market
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Talking Down The 10-Year

Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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