Fixed Income
This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not expected to last. The market-based core…
Our 2025 Outlook was just published. We revisit this year’s calls and discuss what we think is ahead for the global economy and markets for the next 12 months and beyond. The recent US election has significantly shifted our economic and market outlook. A…
Our US bond strategists expect yields to remain volatile, and do not have confidence that yields have peaked yet. The transition period to a new US administration introduces headline risks on where fiscal policy is headed. At about 4.4%, the…
Our Global Asset Allocation team analyzed the performance and allocation strategies of 79 US public pension funds, providing insights across governance, scale, and liquidity. Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) is the most significant driver of fund…
Chinese activity indicators showed resilience in October, with retail sales jumping from 3.2% to 4.8% y/y. Industrial production growth was roughly unchanged at 5.3% y/y. New and used home prices keep falling, albeit at a slower pace. We would fade this…
US CPI inflation for October printed in line with expectations and was unchanged from September, with headline at 0.2% month-over-month and core at 0.3%. Headline re-accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% on an annual basis, and core stayed steady at 3.3%. This…
According to the latest update of the Central Bank Monitors from BCA’s Global Fixed Income strategists, economic weakness and diminishing inflation pressures warrant a shift towards easier global monetary conditions. The most hawkish signals come from the…
We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.