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Fixed Income

Global Equities Will Lag Bonds
Despite global bond yields having trended lower since April, bonds have only started outperforming equities since July in US dollar terms. We expect this outperformance to persist going forward. Sentiment has largely driven the equity market rally this…
Daily Insights
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Nothing To See Here

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper
UK Wage Growth Decelerates
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Daily Insights
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Heed Warnings From Market Undercurrents

The undercurrents of global financial markets signal deteriorating global growth conditions. There is little cash on the sidelines in the US, the Euro Area, and Japan. If the budding bear market resembles the 2000-2003 one, EM stock prices are unlikely to outperform global equities in the initial leg but could outperform in the latter stage of the global selloff.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Swedish Spreads Augur Poorly For Eurozone Stocks And Currency
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
Daily Insights
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Time To Play Defense

Crucial leading indicators of the global and European economies continue to deteriorate. How should investors position their European portfolios to benefit from these trends?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Refinancing Needs Are A Eurozone High Yield Headwind
The pro-cyclical Eurozone economy is highly exposed to a global downturn, which we expect will materialize by early 2025. The ECB is behind the curve and we thus expect it to ease more aggressively than markets expect next year. A dovish surprise in 2025…
Daily Insights
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The Binary US Bond Market

This morning's employment report, particularly the downward revisions to prior months, strengthens our conviction that the US economy is headed for recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Cuts Are Coming, But At What Pace?

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Beige Book Shows Signs Of Slower Employment
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the evolution of economic conditions. …
Daily Insights

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