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Fixed Income

The Carry Trade Blowup Is Only The Start
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should fade the rebound in European equities and bond yields as the euro is also at risk. Last week’s bounce in global equities is temporary. The pause in the carry trades unwound,…
Daily Insights
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The Carry Trade Blowup Is Only The Start

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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An Investor's Guide To The Rest Of The Year

The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
German Manufacturing Sector Slumps Further
German Industrial production and factory orders continued their slump in June. The usual powerhouse of the Euro Area economy has been trailing its peers throughout 2024. While both industrial production and factory orders surprised to the upside in June,…
Daily Insights
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Failed Breakouts Warn Of Bear Market Ahead

The prices of multiple financial assets have failed to break above their technical resistances. When this occurs, a breakdown ensues. In brief, global risk assets remain vulnerable. We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from neutral to overweight and offshore ones from underweight to neutral within EM and global equity portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Treasury Curve: Own 2 -Year/10-Year Curve Steepeners
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Friday’s employment report caused financial markets to price-in some recession risk for the first time in months. The Treasury curve bull-steepened in July, a move that accelerated after Friday’s negative…
Daily Insights
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
RBA Still Has Its Work Cut Out For It
The Australian CPI release for Q2 came in broadly within expectations. Headline CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%y/y from 3.6%y/y the previous quarter. Some of the narrower measures of inflation — trimmed-mean and weighted median CPI — came in below market…
Daily Insights
The Stock-Bond Correlation Breaks Down When Inflation Runs High
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, while the market action of the past few weeks is pointing to a return to a negative stock-bond correlation, more prints will be needed to confirm things are getting back to normal. The post-COVID…
Daily Insights
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The Fly In The Soft Landing Ointment

Mounting evidence that the labor market is on its way to cracking checked two more boxes on our checklist, driving us to tactically downgrade equities to underweight while upgrading fixed income to overweight. Our tactical and cyclical (6-12 months) views are now aligned as our conviction that a recession will begin before year-end has increased.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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