Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

US LEI Continues To Contract
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.4% m/m in January, following a 0.1% m/m drop in December – disappointing expectations of a milder decline. This marks the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease and has pushed down the index to its…
Daily Insights
On The Lookout For An Opportunity To Increase Duration Exposure
US Treasuries have been selling off over the past two months as investors downgrade the odds of an imminent start to the Fed’s easing cycle. Naturally, a question facing investors is whether current levels constitute a good opportunity to increase duration…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240216_141346.PNG
It’s A Good Time To Buy Inflation Insurance

Could a second wave of global inflation be underway? The latest inflation prints in the US and UK showed upside surprises, while there is evidence of increased price pressures in global manufacturing. Combined with the improvements seen in economic sentiment measures and leading economic indicators in the US and Europe, and potential upside risks to oil prices, we see a strong case for owning more inflation protection in global bond portfolios. Inflation-linked bonds look attractive in this environment, especially in the US.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Treasury Yields Rise On Hot US PPI
The hotter-than-anticipated US PPI report for January prompted a selloff in Treasuries on Friday. The monthly and annual changes in both the headline as well as the core measures of final demand PPI came in above expectations. Core PPI’s 0.5% m/m increase…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240215_140737.PNG
Decoupling And A Litmus Test

Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the US dollar strength will be weakness in EM risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
f_image_20240214_141010.PNG
Bonds Are Looking More Attractive

Comments on yesterday’s CPI report and yield moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
What Will Disrupt The Party?
Expectations that the Fed will successfully deliver a soft landing for the US economy remains the dominant narrative. Since August, economists have been revising up their 2024 US GDP forecasts with the consensus now anticipating US growth to clock in at 1.6%…
Daily Insights
Canadian Labor Force Survey Delivers A Positive Surprise
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%, compared to consensus…
Daily Insights
Can The US Dollar Rally When The Fed Cuts Rates?
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be realized. Rising interest rates will…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240207_111138.PNG
Killing Inflation Without Killing The Economy Is Not A Done-Deal

The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in the US and the UK. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, we highlight an interesting sector pair-trade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics